Department of Mathematics, Government College University, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 15;13(1):15320. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42106-0.
Lassa fever is a hemorrhagic virus infection that is usually spread by rodents. It is a fatal infection that is prevalent in certain West African countries. We created an analytical deterministic-stochastic framework for the epidemics of Lassa fever employing a collection of ordinary differential equations with nonlinear solutions to identify the influence of propagation processes on infected development in individuals and rodents, which include channels that are commonly overlooked, such as ecological emergent and aerosol pathways. The findings shed light on the role of both immediate and subsequent infectiousness via the power law, exponential decay and generalized Mittag-Leffler kernels. The scenario involves the presence of a steady state and an endemic equilibrium regardless of the fundamental reproduction number, [Formula: see text], making Lassa fever influence challenging and dependent on the severity of the initial sub-populations. Meanwhile, we demonstrate that the stochastic structure has an exclusive global positive solution via a positive starting point. The stochastic Lyapunov candidate approach is subsequently employed to determine sufficient requirements for the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic stationary distribution of non-negative stochastic simulation approaches. We acquire the particular configuration of the random perturbation associated with the model's equilibrium [Formula: see text] according to identical environments as the presence of a stationary distribution. Ultimately, modeling techniques are used to verify the mathematical conclusions. Our fractional and stochastic findings exhibit that when all modes of transmission are included, the impact of Lassa fever disease increases. The majority of single dissemination pathways are less detrimental with fractional findings; however, when combined with additional spread pathways, they boost the Lassa fever stress.
拉沙热是一种出血性病毒感染,通常由啮齿动物传播。它是一种致命的感染,在某些西非国家流行。我们创建了一个分析确定性-随机框架,用于拉沙热的流行,使用一组带有非线性解的常微分方程来识别传播过程对个体和啮齿动物中感染发展的影响,其中包括通常被忽视的渠道,如生态突发和气溶胶途径。研究结果揭示了通过幂律、指数衰减和广义 Mittag-Leffler 核来表现即时和后续传染性的作用。该情景涉及到稳态和地方病平衡点的存在,无论基本繁殖数 [Formula: see text] 如何,这使得拉沙热的影响具有挑战性,并取决于初始亚群的严重程度。同时,我们证明了随机结构通过正起点具有排他性的全局正解。随后,我们采用随机 Lyapunov 候选方法来确定非负随机模拟方法的遍历平稳分布存在和唯一性的充分条件。根据相同的环境,我们获得了与模型平衡 [Formula: see text] 相关的随机扰动的特定配置,因为存在平稳分布。最终,使用建模技术验证了数学结论。我们的分数和随机发现表明,当包括所有传播模式时,拉沙热疾病的影响会增加。分数研究结果表明,大多数单一传播途径的危害较小;然而,当与其他传播途径结合时,它们会增加拉沙热的压力。