Department of Oncology, The Second Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Shenzhen Clinical Medical School of Southern Medical University.
Cancer Control. 2023 Jan-Dec;30:10732748231202851. doi: 10.1177/10732748231202851.
Breast cancer liver metastasis (BCLM) is a severe condition often resulting in early death. The identification of prognostic factors and the construction of accurate predictive models can guide clinical decision-making.
A large sample of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was analyzed, including 3711 patients diagnosed with de novo BCLM between 2010 and 2015. Predictive models were developed using histograms, and stepwise regression addressed variable collinearity. Internal validation was performed, and results were compared to similar studies.
In this study of 3711 BCLM patients, 2571 didn't have early death. Out of the 1164 who died early, 1086 had cancer-specific early death. Prognostic factors for early death, including age, race, tumor size, and lymph node involvement, were identified. A nomogram based on these factors was constructed, accurately predicting early all-cause and cancer-specific death.
Valuable insights into the prognosis of BCLM patients were provided, and important prognostic factors for early death were identified. The developed nomogram can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients for early death and inform treatment decisions.
乳腺癌肝转移（BCLM）是一种严重的疾病，常导致早期死亡。识别预后因素并构建准确的预测模型可以指导临床决策。
对来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的大量数据进行分析，包括 2010 年至 2015 年间诊断为初发性 BCLM 的 3711 例患者。使用直方图开发预测模型，并采用逐步回归解决变量共线性问题。进行内部验证，并将结果与类似研究进行比较。
在这项对 3711 例 BCLM 患者的研究中，2571 例患者没有早期死亡。在 1164 例早期死亡的患者中，有 1086 例死于癌症特异性原因。确定了早期死亡的预后因素，包括年龄、种族、肿瘤大小和淋巴结受累。基于这些因素构建了一个列线图，能够准确预测早期全因和癌症特异性死亡。
本研究为 BCLM 患者的预后提供了有价值的见解，并确定了早期死亡的重要预后因素。开发的列线图可以帮助临床医生识别早期死亡风险较高的患者，并为治疗决策提供信息。
