Liang Sai, Zhong Qiumeng, Zhou Haifeng, Liao Yihan, You Jing, Meng Jing, Feng Cuiyang, Lin Chen
Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510006, P.R. China.
School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P.R. China.
PNAS Nexus. 2023 Sep 19;2(9):pgad288. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad288. eCollection 2023 Sep.
Technological progress (TP) is a double-edged sword to global climate change. This study for the first time reveals rebound and mitigation effects of efficiency-related TP in global value chains (GVCs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The integrated effects of TP depend on the positioning of sectors in GVCs. The cost-saving TP in upstream sectors would stimulate downstream demand. This produces stronger rebound effects than mitigation potentials and leads to global GHG emission increments (e.g. TP in the gas sector of China and petroleum and coal products sector of South Korea). In contrast, sectors located in the trailing end of GVCs have greater potentials for GHG emission mitigation through TP, mainly due to the reduction of upstream inputs. (e.g. the construction sector of China and dwelling sector of the United States). Global GHG emissions and production outputs can be either a trade-off or a win-win relationship on account of TP than rebound effects, because TP in different sectors could possibly increase or decrease the emission intensity of GVCs. This study could recognize the most productive spots for GHG emission mitigation through efficiency-related TP. It provides a new perspective for international cooperation to promote global GHG emission mitigation.
技术进步（TP）对全球气候变化来说是一把双刃剑。本研究首次揭示了全球价值链（GVCs）中与效率相关的技术进步对温室气体（GHG）排放的回弹效应和减缓效应。技术进步的综合效应取决于各部门在全球价值链中的定位。上游部门节省成本的技术进步会刺激下游需求。这产生的回弹效应比减缓潜力更强，并导致全球温室气体排放量增加（例如中国的天然气部门和韩国的石油及煤炭制品部门的技术进步）。相比之下，位于全球价值链末端的部门通过技术进步实现温室气体减排的潜力更大，主要是由于上游投入的减少。（例如中国的建筑业和美国的住宅业）。由于技术进步的回弹效应，全球温室气体排放和产出可能是一种权衡关系，也可能是一种双赢关系，因为不同部门的技术进步可能会增加或降低全球价值链的排放强度。本研究可以识别出通过与效率相关的技术进步实现温室气体减排的最有效点。它为促进全球温室气体减排的国际合作提供了一个新的视角。
