School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, P. R. China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, P. R. China.
Nat Commun. 2020 Mar 13;11(1):1358. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-15175-2.
Transforming China's economic growth pattern from investment-driven to consumption-driven can significantly change global CO emissions. This study is the first to analyse the impacts of changes in China's saving rates on global CO emissions both theoretically and empirically. Here, we show that the increase in the saving rates of Chinese regions has led to increments of global industrial CO emissions by 189 million tonnes (Mt) during 2007-2012. A 15-percentage-point decrease in the saving rate of China can lower global CO emissions by 186 Mt, or 0.7% of global industrial CO emissions. Greener consumption in China can lead to a further 14% reduction in global industrial CO emissions. In particular, decreasing the saving rate of Shandong has the most massive potential for global CO reductions, while that of Inner Mongolia has adverse effects. Removing economic frictions to allow the production system to fit China's increased consumption can facilitate global CO mitigation.
将中国经济增长模式从投资驱动型转变为消费驱动型，可以显著改变全球二氧化碳排放。本研究首次从理论和实证两个方面分析了中国储蓄率变化对全球二氧化碳排放的影响。研究表明，2007-2012 年期间，中国各地区储蓄率的提高导致了全球工业二氧化碳排放量增加 1.89 亿吨。中国储蓄率降低 15 个百分点，可使全球二氧化碳排放量减少 1.86 亿吨，占全球工业二氧化碳排放量的 0.7%。中国绿色消费可使全球工业二氧化碳排放量进一步减少 14%。具体而言，降低山东省的储蓄率对全球二氧化碳减排的潜力最大，而内蒙古的储蓄率则会产生负面影响。消除经济摩擦，使生产系统适应中国不断增长的消费，可以促进全球二氧化碳减排。
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