对秘鲁 2017 年沿海厄尔尼诺事件影响和应对的反思:以史为鉴,未雨绸缪。

Reflections on the impact and response to the Peruvian 2017 Coastal El Niño event: Looking to the past to prepare for the future.

机构信息

Clima, Latin American Centre of Excellence for Climate Change and Health, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.

EcoSalud, Laboratorio de Ecosalud y Ecología Urbana, Facultad de Ciencias e Ingeniería, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2023 Sep 26;18(9):e0290767. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290767. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

Climate-related phenomena in Peru have been slowly but continuously changing in recent years beyond historical variability. These include sea surface temperature increases, irregular precipitation patterns and reduction of glacier-covered areas. In addition, climate scenarios show amplification in rainfall variability related to the warmer conditions associated with El Niño events. Extreme weather can affect human health, increase shocks and stresses to the health systems, and cause large economic losses. In this article, we study the characteristics of El Niño events in Peru, its health and economic impacts and we discuss government preparedness for this kind of event, identify gaps in response, and provide evidence to inform adequate planning for future events and mitigating impacts on highly vulnerable regions and populations. This is the first case study to review the impact of a Coastal El Niño event on Peru's economy, public health, and governance. The 2017 event was the third strongest El Niño event according to literature, in terms of precipitation and river flooding and caused important economic losses and health impacts. At a national level, these findings expose a need for careful consideration of the potential limitations of policies linked to disaster prevention and preparedness when dealing with El Niño events. El Niño-related policies should be based on local-level risk analysis and efficient preparedness measures in the face of emergencies.

摘要

秘鲁近年来的气候相关现象已经超出历史变化范围,呈缓慢但持续的变化趋势。这些现象包括海面温度上升、降水模式不规则以及冰川覆盖面积减少。此外,气候情景显示与厄尔尼诺事件相关的变暖条件下,降雨变化幅度增大。极端天气会影响人类健康,增加卫生系统的冲击和压力,并造成巨大的经济损失。本文研究了秘鲁厄尔尼诺现象的特征、其对健康和经济的影响,并讨论了政府对此类事件的准备情况,确定了应对措施中的差距,并提供了证据,为未来事件的适当规划和减轻对高度脆弱地区和人口的影响提供信息。这是第一项研究秘鲁沿海厄尔尼诺事件对秘鲁经济、公共卫生和治理影响的案例研究。根据文献记载,2017 年的厄尔尼诺事件是降水和河流洪水方面第三强的厄尔尼诺事件,造成了重大的经济损失和健康影响。在国家层面上,这些发现揭示了在应对厄尔尼诺事件时,需要仔细考虑与灾害预防和准备相关的政策可能存在的局限性。与厄尔尼诺相关的政策应基于地方层面的风险分析和面对紧急情况的有效准备措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ac29/10522041/d69208825fb2/pone.0290767.g001.jpg

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