Cohen Susan D
Center for Regulatory Research, LLC, 2355 Highway 36 West, Suite #400, Minnesota, MN 55113, USA.
J Fungi (Basel). 2023 Aug 31;9(9):892. doi: 10.3390/jof9090892.
, a fungal pathogen, causes world-wide crop losses and additional disease management strategies are needed. Modeling the climate niche of this fungus may offer a tool for the selection of biological control organisms and cultural methods of control. Maxent, a modeling technique, was used to characterize the climate niche for the fungus. The technique requires disease occurrence data, bioclimatic data layers, and geospatial analysis. A cross-correlation was performed with ArcGIS 10.8.1, to reduce nineteen bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) to nine variables. The model results were evaluated by AUC (area under the curve). A final model was created with the random seed procedure of Maxent and gave an average AUC of 0.935 with an AUC difference of -0.008. The most critical variables included annual precipitation (importance: 14.1%) with a range of 450 mm to 2500 mm and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (importance: 55.6%) with a range of -16 °C to 24 °C, which contributed the most to the final model. A habitat suitability map was generated in ArcGIS 10.8.1 from the final Maxent model. The final model was validated by comparing results with another occurrence dataset. A Z-Score statistical test confirmed no significant differences between the two datasets for all suitability areas.
一种真菌病原体导致全球范围内的作物损失,因此需要额外的病害管理策略。对这种真菌的气候生态位进行建模可能为选择生物防治生物和栽培防治方法提供一种工具。最大熵模型(Maxent)是一种建模技术,用于描述该真菌的气候生态位。该技术需要病害发生数据、生物气候数据层和地理空间分析。使用ArcGIS 10.8.1进行互相关分析,将19个生物气候变量(WorldClim)减少到9个变量。通过曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型结果。使用Maxent的随机种子程序创建了一个最终模型,其平均AUC为0.935,AUC差异为-0.008。最关键的变量包括年降水量(重要性:14.1%),范围为450毫米至2500毫米,以及最冷月的平均温度(重要性:55.6%),范围为-16°C至24°C,这对最终模型的贡献最大。利用最终的Maxent模型在ArcGIS 10.8.1中生成了栖息地适宜性地图。通过将结果与另一个发生数据集进行比较,对最终模型进行了验证。Z分数统计检验证实,两个数据集在所有适宜性区域之间没有显著差异。