Yan Chengcai, Hao Haiting, Sha Shuaishuai, Wang Zhe, Huang Lili, Kang Zhensheng, Wang Lan, Feng Hongzu
College of Life Science and Technology, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China.
Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in Southern Xinjiang, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China.
J Fungi (Basel). 2024 Jan 3;10(1):38. doi: 10.3390/jof10010038.
The plant pathogenic fungus is notoriously known for causing woody plant canker diseases, resulting in substantial economic losses to biological forests and fruit trees worldwide. Despite their strong negative ecological impact, the existing and prospective distribution patterns of these plant pathogens in China, according to climate change, have received little attention. In this study, we chose three widely dispersed and seriously damaging species, namely, , , and , which are the most common species that damage the , , , , spp., and spp. in China. We utilized ecological niche modeling to forecast their regional distribution in China under four climate change scenarios (present, SSP 126, SSP 370, and SSP 585). The results show that temperature-related climate factors limit the current distribution ranges of the three species. Currently, the three studied species are highly suitable for northeast, northwest, north, and southwest China. Under future climate scenarios, the distribution ranges of the three species are projected to increase, and the centers of the adequate distribution areas of the three species are expected to shift to high-latitude regions. The three species coexist in China, primarily in the northwest and north regions. The ecological niches of and are more similar. The distribution range of can reach the warmer and wetter eastern region, whereas and are primarily found in drought-prone areas with little rainfall. Our findings can help farmers and planners develop methods to avoid the spread of spp. and calculate the costs of applying pesticides to reduce contamination and boost yields.
这种植物病原真菌因引发木本植物溃疡病而臭名昭著，给全球生物森林和果树造成了巨大经济损失。尽管它们具有强烈的负面生态影响，但根据气候变化，这些植物病原体在中国的现有和未来分布模式却很少受到关注。在本研究中，我们选择了三种广泛分布且危害严重的物种，即[物种名称1]、[物种名称2]和[物种名称3]，它们是在中国危害[寄主植物1]、[寄主植物2]、[寄主植物3]、[寄主植物4]、[寄主植物5]属和[寄主植物6]属的最常见物种。我们利用生态位建模来预测它们在四种气候变化情景（当前、SSP 126、SSP 370和SSP 585）下在中国的区域分布。结果表明，与温度相关的气候因素限制了这三个物种目前的分布范围。目前，这三个被研究的物种非常适合中国的东北、西北、北部和西南部地区。在未来气候情景下，这三个物种的分布范围预计会扩大，并且这三个物种适宜分布区的中心预计将向高纬度地区转移。这三个物种在中国共存，主要分布在西北和北部地区。[物种名称1]和[物种名称2]的生态位更为相似。[物种名称3]的分布范围可以到达温暖湿润的东部地区，而[物种名称1]和[物种名称2]主要分布在降雨稀少的干旱地区。我们的研究结果可以帮助农民和规划者制定方法来避免[寄主植物属]物种的传播，并计算使用农药以减少污染和提高产量的成本。
