Thach Keo Sa Rate, Lee Ji Yong, Ha My Trang, Cao Minh Tuan, Nayga Rodolfo M, Yang Jae-E
School of Economics, Can Tho University, Vietnam.
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Kangwon National University, Korea Chuncheon-si, Gangwon-do, 24341, Republic of Korea.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 21;9(10):e20367. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20367. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Saline intrusion is increasingly threatening the rice farming system in The Mekong River Delta (MRD). Identifying the impact of this disaster on rice farming and providing promptly adaptable solutions is an urgent issue. This study evaluates the influence of saline intrusion on rice productivity of households in the MRD. We utilize the quasi-experimental method, the difference-in-difference (DID) method, with farm level panel data on rice farming extracted from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) in 2014 and 2016. The empirical results indicate that households affected by saline intrusion have lower total production and lower productivity compared to the unaffected group. The affected group has lower total revenue of approximately 4969.8 thousand VND per ha and lower net revenue, on an average of 4679.3 thousand VND per ha, compared to the comparable unaffected group. Among the subsamples of different regions, the damage magnitude of households in severely affected regions by salinity intrusion is higher than in less severely affected areas. Some policy implications that can be proposed from this research are that the management agency should continue to update information on weather and climate change scenarios for forecasting and timely information for rice farmers. The agency comprehensively evaluates the effectiveness of transformed models of sustainable agricultural production adapted to salinity intrusion and replicates high-effective production models; restructure rice cultivation following the salinity intrusion level of each locality.
海水入侵正日益威胁着湄公河三角洲（MRD）的水稻种植系统。识别这场灾害对水稻种植的影响并及时提供适应性解决方案是一个紧迫的问题。本研究评估了海水入侵对湄公河三角洲地区农户水稻生产力的影响。我们采用准实验方法，即差分法（DID），利用从2014年和2016年越南家庭生活水平调查（VHLSS）中提取的农场层面水稻种植面板数据。实证结果表明，与未受影响的群体相比，受海水入侵影响的农户总产量和生产力较低。与可比的未受影响群体相比，受影响群体每公顷总收入约低496.98万越南盾，净收入平均每公顷低467.93万越南盾。在不同地区的子样本中，受盐分入侵严重影响地区的农户受损程度高于受影响较轻的地区。本研究可提出的一些政策建议是，管理机构应继续更新天气和气候变化情景信息，以便为稻农进行预测并及时提供信息。该机构应全面评估适应盐分入侵的可持续农业生产转型模式的有效性，并推广高效生产模式；根据各地的盐分入侵程度调整水稻种植结构。
