Effect of saline intrusion on rice production in the Mekong River Delta.

Saline intrusion is increasingly threatening the rice farming system in The Mekong River Delta (MRD). Identifying the impact of this disaster on rice farming and providing promptly adaptable solutions is an urgent issue. This study evaluates the influence of saline intrusion on rice productivity of households in the MRD. We utilize the quasi-experimental method, the difference-in-difference (DID) method, with farm level panel data on rice farming extracted from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) in 2014 and 2016. The empirical results indicate that households affected by saline intrusion have lower total production and lower productivity compared to the unaffected group. The affected group has lower total revenue of approximately 4969.8 thousand VND per ha and lower net revenue, on an average of 4679.3 thousand VND per ha, compared to the comparable unaffected group. Among the subsamples of different regions, the damage magnitude of households in severely affected regions by salinity intrusion is higher than in less severely affected areas. Some policy implications that can be proposed from this research are that the management agency should continue to update information on weather and climate change scenarios for forecasting and timely information for rice farmers. The agency comprehensively evaluates the effectiveness of transformed models of sustainable agricultural production adapted to salinity intrusion and replicates high-effective production models; restructure rice cultivation following the salinity intrusion level of each locality.