Asefa Bogale Girma
School of Natural Resources Management and Environmental Sciences, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Diredawa, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 21;9(10):e20293. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20293. eCollection 2023 Oct.
The impact of climate change on agriculture and food production is manifested through alterations in agro-ecological factors. The region of sub-Saharan Africa is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change and variability, given its reliance on rainfall-dependent agriculture and inadequate adaptive capabilities. The objective of this study was to analysis of the characterization of climate change and its impacts on smallholder farmers in eastern Ethiopia. Historical daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature in 1991-2021 years of 12 weather station were collected from National Meteorological Institute of Ethiopia and NASA/POWER. Data quality control, trend test and outlier detection test were used. Climate characterization (onset, cessation, LGS and Dry/wet spell length) and precipitation concentration index were examined. The earliest, and latest start of rainy season in Kombolcha and Haramaya were 81DOY (March 21) and 225DOY (August 13) within mean 130DOY and 125DOY, respectively. In study area the minimum and maximum length of growing period of was recorded in Chinakesen and Haramaya by the values of 32DOY and 253DOY (Days of the year) respectively. In this arid and semi-arid areas, growing period was recorded under the short season crop maturity while long cropping season maturity does no satisfy crop water requirement due to moisture stress. The coefficient of variation of length of growing season from Mieso and Chinakesen were 36.2% and 47.9% which implies that the areas were highly vulnerable to climate extreme events of drought. Length of growing season (LGS) of Gemechis district was decreasing by a factor -2.533 shows highly significant at alpha value of 0.05 confidence level. Dry spell length probability occurrence of 5 days during the main cropping rainy season is significantly very high. The 30 years of data record suggests that a 29-48% precipitation concentration index of kiremt (JJAS) and belg (FMAM) seasonal rainfall which are demonstrating irregular precipitation. kiremt (JJAS) rainfall trend tests of Babile, Kurfa chale and Mieso districts were increasing by a factor of 2.016, 2.043 and 2.117, respectively and statistically significant at 95% confidence level, in the time period of 1991-2021 years. If furtherstudy will be examined climate extreme indices and adaptation strategies designed to simulate the impacts and variability of climate change in the study area.
气候变化对农业和粮食生产的影响通过农业生态因素的改变得以体现。撒哈拉以南非洲地区尤其容易受到气候变化和气候变率的影响，因为该地区依赖依赖降雨的农业且适应能力不足。本研究的目的是分析埃塞俄比亚东部气候变化的特征及其对小农户的影响。从埃塞俄比亚国家气象研究所和美国国家航空航天局/功率数据库收集了1991 - 2021年12个气象站的历史日降雨量、最高和最低温度数据。使用了数据质量控制、趋势检验和异常值检测检验。研究了气候特征（开始、结束、生长季长度和干湿期长度）以及降水集中度指数。在科姆博尔查和哈勒马亚，雨季最早和最晚开始时间分别为一年中的第81天（3月21日）和第225天（8月13日），平均分别为第130天和第125天。在研究区域，奇纳克森和哈勒马亚记录的生长季最短和最长长度分别为32天和253天（一年中的天数）。在这个干旱和半干旱地区，生长季是在短季作物成熟时记录的，而长季作物成熟时由于水分胁迫无法满足作物水分需求。米索和奇纳克森生长季长度的变异系数分别为36.2%和47.9%，这意味着这些地区极易受到干旱等极端气候事件的影响。格梅奇斯地区的生长季长度以-2.533的系数下降，在0.05置信水平的α值下显示出高度显著性。在主要作物种植雨季期间出现5天干旱期的概率非常高。30年的数据记录表明，基尔梅特（6 - 9月）和贝尔格（2 - 5月）季节降雨的降水集中度指数为29 - 48%，这表明降雨不规则。在1991 - 2021年期间，巴比利、库尔法查莱和米索地区的基尔梅特（6 - 9月）降雨趋势检验分别以2.016、2.043和2.117的系数增加，在95%置信水平上具有统计学显著性。如果进一步研究将考察气候极端指数和旨在模拟研究区域气候变化影响和变率的适应策略。
