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确定 2017 年至 2020 年在埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴市发生的碰撞严重程度级别的决定因素:使用有序逻辑回归模型方法。

Identification of determinant factors for crash severity levels occurred in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia, from 2017 to 2020: using ordinal logistic regression model approach.

机构信息

Department of Emergency Medicine and Critical Care, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia.

Department of Medicine, Ethiopian Police University, Sendafa, Ethiopia.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2023 Sep 29;23(1):1884. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16785-3.

DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-16785-3
PMID:37770892
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10540358/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Road traffic Injuries (RTI) are multifaceted occurrences determined by the combination of multiple factors. Also, severity levels of injuries from road traffic accidents are determined by the interaction of the composite factors. Even though most accidents are severe to fatal in developing countries, there is still a lack of extensive researches on crash severity levels and factors associated with these accidents. Hence, this study was intended to identify severity levels of road traffic injuries and determinant factors in Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study was conducted in Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia, using secondary data obtained from the Addis Ababa Police Commission office. The ordinal logistic regression model was used to investigate road traffic injury severity levels and factors worsening injury severity levels using the recorded dataset from October 2017 to July 2020.

RESULTS

A total of 8458 car accidents were considered in the study, of which 15.1% were fatal, 46.7% severe, and 38.3% were slight injuries. The results of the ordinal logistic regression analysis estimation showed that being a commercial truck, college and above level educated driver, rollover crash, motorbike passengers, the crash day on Friday, and darkness were significantly associated factors with crash injury severity levels in the study area. On the contrary, driving experience (> 10 years), passenger of the vehicle, two-lane roads, and afternoon crashes were found to decrease the severity of road traffic injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

Road traffic injury reduction measures should include strict law enforcement in order to maintain road traffic rules especially among commercial truckers, motorcyclists, and government vehicle drivers. Also, it is better to train drivers to be more alert and conscious in their travels, especially on turning and handling their vehicles while driving.

摘要

背景

道路交通伤害(RTI)是由多种因素共同作用的多方面事件。此外,道路交通事故的伤害严重程度也由综合因素的相互作用决定。尽管在发展中国家,大多数事故都是严重到致命的,但对事故严重程度和相关因素的广泛研究仍然不足。因此,本研究旨在确定埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴市的道路交通伤害严重程度和相关因素。

方法

该研究在埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴进行,使用从亚的斯亚贝巴警察委员会办公室获得的二手数据。使用记录的 2017 年 10 月至 2020 年 7 月期间的数据,有序逻辑回归模型被用于调查道路交通事故的严重程度以及加重伤害严重程度的因素。

结果

本研究共考虑了 8458 起汽车事故,其中 15.1%为致命伤,46.7%为重伤,38.3%为轻伤。有序逻辑回归分析估计结果表明,商业卡车、受过大学及以上教育的司机、翻车事故、摩托车乘客、周五的事故日以及黑暗是与研究区域内事故伤害严重程度显著相关的因素。相反,驾驶经验(>10 年)、车辆乘客、双车道和下午发生的事故被发现会降低道路交通事故的严重程度。

结论

减少道路交通伤害的措施应包括严格执法,以维护道路交通规则,特别是针对商业卡车司机、摩托车司机和政府车辆司机。此外,最好对驾驶员进行培训,使其在行驶过程中更加警惕和自觉,特别是在转弯和操作车辆时。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/89f6/10540358/e1f1c4255c9c/12889_2023_16785_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/89f6/10540358/e1f1c4255c9c/12889_2023_16785_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/89f6/10540358/e1f1c4255c9c/12889_2023_16785_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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