Municipal emission pathways and economic performance toward net-zero emissions: A case study of Nakhon Ratchasima municipality, Thailand.

The transition to net-zero emissions (NZEs) in developing countries is challenging and requires the immediate adoption of comprehensive climate policy packages, strong collaboration among all sectors and stakeholders, and timely financial and technological assistance for developing economies. This research aims to analyze and evaluate the pathways to realize an NZE scheme at the municipality level. Nakhon Ratchasima (NR) Municipality, Thailand, is selected as the case study for this research. The Global Protocol for Community-Scale GHG Emission Inventories (GPC) is applied as the robust framework to assess the city's GHG emission profile. A mathematical forecasting model and the participatory multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach were adopted to support evidence-based local climate action planning based on four different scenarios: the business-as-usual (BAU), nationally determined contribution (NDC), carbon neutrality (CN), and NZE scenarios. The roles of stakeholders at the local community level across all sectors in mitigation actions and investment costs were investigated, and cost-effectiveness was evaluated to understand the economic performance of the adoption and implementation of local climate policy packages. The results indicate that by employing solely conventional technologies, a residential city that is also a hub for trade and land transportation will be unable to achieve its net-zero targets. It is imperative to seek additional low-carbon businesses and decarbonizing technologies that accompany substantial investments. According to the case of NR Municipality, the implementation costs to attain the NZE target by 2050 would range between 974.40 and 4.131.96 million USD. A pivotal driver of the municipal NZE pathway is the successful mobilization private sector investments to propel the transition toward climate-friendly technologies. Cost-effectiveness analysis significantly bolsters the municipality's transitional plan preparation, holistically encompassing economic, social, and environmental considerations. By preparing these aspects together, we ensure a smooth and equitable transition to net zero, avoid conflicts and economic harm and leave no one behind. This approach ensures a harmonious balance between a net-zero future, economic growth, and environmentally friendly living for all.