Detsky A S, Abrams H B, Forbath N, Scott J G, Hilliard J R
Arch Intern Med. 1986 Nov;146(11):2131-4.
In this article, we describe a multifactorial cardiac risk index that can be used to assess patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. The index is a modified version of an index that was previously generated by Goldman and coworkers on a set of 1001 consecutive patients and prospectively validated in our clinical setting (a general medical consultation service in a large teaching hospital) on 455 patients. We present a Bayesian approach to assessing cardiac risks by converting average risks for patients undergoing particular surgical procedures (pretest probabilities) to average risks for patients with each index score (posttest probabilities). A simple nomogram is presented for performing such a calculation.
在本文中，我们描述了一种可用于评估接受非心脏手术患者的多因素心脏风险指数。该指数是对之前由戈德曼及其同事针对一组1001例连续患者生成的指数的改良版本，并在我们的临床环境（一家大型教学医院的普通内科会诊服务）中对455例患者进行了前瞻性验证。我们提出了一种贝叶斯方法，通过将接受特定外科手术患者的平均风险（检验前概率）转换为每个指数评分患者的平均风险（检验后概率）来评估心脏风险。还给出了一个简单的列线图用于进行此类计算。
