Vaz Ricardo Zambarda, Lobato José Fernando Piva, Bethancourt-Garcia Javier Alexander, Pacheco Rangel Fernandes, Reis Nathália Pasi, Sartori Dayana Bernardi Sarzi, Jappe Sabrina Amália, Restle João
Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, Palmeira das Missões, RS, Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.
Anim Reprod. 2023 Sep 18;20(3):e20230054. doi: 10.1590/1984-3143-AR2023-0054. eCollection 2023.
Potential variables for the reproductive success of beef cows were evaluated. Included in the model were the age of the cow at calving; the interval between the Julian calving date and the end of the breeding season; the body weight and conditions at calving, at 75 days post-partum and at the end of the breeding season; and the mean daily variation in weight between these dates. Logistic regression was used in the analysis, with the parameters evaluated using the odds ratio statistic, estimating the chance of pregnancy. The mean rate of pregnancy was 84% and 55% for early and late-weaned cows, respectively. For early weaned cows, the regression variables were the Julian calving date, age of the cow, weight gain from calving to 75 days post-partum, and from 75 days post-partum to the end of the reproductive period. For late-weaned cows, there were only two regression variables, weight at calving and weight gain from calving to the end of the reproductive period. For every year above the average age of the herd, early weaned cows have an 80.9% greater chance of pregnancy, while a reduction of one year reduces the chance of pregnancy by 44.7%. In early weaned cows, every seven days after the mean Julian calving date reduces the chances of pregnancy by 22.6%, whereas every seven days before the mean calving date increases pregnancy by 29.2%. Greater gains in cow body weight, from calving to the end of the reproductive period, determine a greater probability of pregnancy.
对肉牛繁殖成功的潜在变量进行了评估。模型中包括产犊时母牛的年龄;儒略历产犊日期与繁殖季节结束之间的间隔;产犊时、产后75天和繁殖季节结束时的体重和体况;以及这些日期之间体重的平均每日变化。分析中使用了逻辑回归,通过优势比统计评估参数,估计怀孕的几率。早期断奶和晚期断奶母牛的平均怀孕率分别为84%和55%。对于早期断奶母牛,回归变量是儒略历产犊日期、母牛年龄、从产犊到产后75天以及从产后75天到繁殖期结束的体重增加。对于晚期断奶母牛,只有两个回归变量,即产犊时的体重和从产犊到繁殖期结束的体重增加。在牛群平均年龄之上每增加一岁,早期断奶母牛怀孕的几率就会增加80.9%,而年龄减少一岁则会使怀孕几率降低44.7%。在早期断奶母牛中,在平均儒略历产犊日期之后每过七天,怀孕几率就会降低22.6%,而在平均产犊日期之前每过七天,怀孕几率会增加29.2%。从产犊到繁殖期结束,母牛体重增加越多,怀孕的概率就越大。