一种新型重大事故演化模型及其在中国工业事故中的应用。
A novel major accidents evolution model and its application in Chinese industrial accident.
作者信息
Zhang Guirong, Wang Shuai, Feng Wei, Ouyang Wanfu
机构信息
School of Public Administration, Central South University, 410083 Changsha, PR China.
出版信息
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 6;9(9):e19684. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19684. eCollection 2023 Sep.
The accident mortality rate of major accidents (MAs) show that China is still in the bottleneck period of accident prevention and control. To further promote the MAs prevention and control, this paper presents a novel major accidents evolution model from the theoretical perspective of information processing (IP). Firstly, based on the safety science paradigm of accident prevention and the emergency management paradigm of accident control, a safety information processing (SIP) process is proposed. Secondly, established the SIP model for different stages of accident prevention and control, which involves danger information processing (DIP), potential hazard information processing (PHIP), risk information processing (RIP), and emergency information processing (EIP). Thirdly, revealed the SIP of various management subject and the failure principle of accident prevention and control, that is, MAs occur under the premise of continuous failures of DIP, PHIP, RIP, and EIP under the social-technical system. Finally, the DPRE-IP model is proposed from the whole evolution path of "danger-potential hazard-risk-accident". To demonstrate the viability of the model, this model is applied to the "6·13" Wenling major explosion accident. The results show that the proposed DPRE-IP model can provide new ideas for the formulation of accident prevention and control measures and accident analysis.
重大事故的事故死亡率表明，中国仍处于事故防控的瓶颈期。为进一步推进重大事故防控工作，本文从信息处理（IP）的理论视角提出了一种新颖的重大事故演化模型。首先，基于事故预防的安全科学范式和事故控制的应急管理范式，提出了一种安全信息处理（SIP）过程。其次，建立了针对事故预防与控制不同阶段的SIP模型，其中包括危险信息处理（DIP）、潜在危险信息处理（PHIP）、风险信息处理（RIP）和应急信息处理（EIP）。第三，揭示了各管理主体的SIP以及事故预防与控制的失效原理，即在社会技术系统下，重大事故在DIP、PHIP、RIP和EIP持续失效的前提下发生。最后，从“危险-潜在危险-风险-事故”的全演化路径提出了DPRE-IP模型。为验证该模型的可行性，将此模型应用于“6·13”温岭重大爆炸事故。结果表明，所提出的DPRE-IP模型可为事故防控措施的制定和事故分析提供新思路。
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