Rutgers Institute for Nicotine & Tobacco Studies, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
Rutgers School of Public Health, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Sep 30;20(19):6866. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20196866.
There is concern that youth e-cigarette use could lead youth to initiate cigarette smoking. This study identifies epochs of cigarette smoking among U.S. high school students in three commonly utilized national school-based surveys over three decades without a priori assumptions. We examined trends in ever and current cigarette smoking among high school youth from 1991 to 2022 in three datasets: Monitoring the Future (MTF), the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (NYRBS) and the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) via Joinpoint regression. High stable rates of ever smoking were noted from 1991 to 1999 (NYRBS and MTF) and then significantly declined from 1999 to 2013; declines accelerated through to 2022. In the NYTS, ever cigarette smoking significantly declined from 1999 to 2018 and then declines accelerated to 2022. Current cigarette smoking reached its peak in 1997, and then significantly declined from 1997 to 2013 in the NYRBS and MTF and similarly in the NYTS from 1999 to 2018. Declines in current smoking then accelerated in all surveys through to 2022. These findings suggest dramatic successes in reducing youth smoking since the late 1990s, with more rapid declines in prevalence in the past decade.
人们担心青少年使用电子烟会导致他们开始吸烟。本研究在没有先验假设的情况下，通过 Joinpoint 回归分析，在三个三十年期间的三个常用全国性学校调查中确定了美国高中生吸烟的阶段。我们研究了从 1991 年到 2022 年期间，三个数据集（监测未来研究、全国青年风险行为调查和全国青年烟草调查）中高中青年的终身和当前吸烟趋势：监测未来研究（MTF）、全国青年风险行为调查（NYRBS）和全国青年烟草调查（NYTS）。从 1991 年到 1999 年（NYRBS 和 MTF），曾经吸烟的比例一直很高且稳定，然后从 1999 年到 2013 年显著下降；到 2022 年，下降速度加快。在 NYTS 中，从 1999 年到 2018 年，曾经吸烟的比例显著下降，然后到 2022 年加速下降。从 1997 年开始，当前吸烟达到高峰，然后从 1997 年到 2013 年，NYRBS 和 MTF 以及 NYTS 中同样如此，当前吸烟的比例显著下降。此后，所有调查的当前吸烟率都在加速下降，直到 2022 年。这些发现表明，自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，青少年吸烟率显著下降，过去十年的下降速度更快。
