Giannico Orazio Valerio, Baldacci Simona, Bisceglia Lucia, Minerba Sante, Conversano Michele, Mincuzzi Antonia
Struttura complessa di statistica ed epidemiologia, Azienda sanitaria locale di Taranto, Taranto, Italy;
Dipartimento di prevenzione, Azienda sanitaria locale di Taranto, Taranto, Italy.
Epidemiol Prev. 2023 Jul-Oct;47(4-5):273-280. doi: 10.19191/EP23.4-5.A616.067.
to quantify the temperature-related global health impacts of the Taranto steel plant CO2e emissions.
using the risk functions available in the literature, a prospective global health impact assessment of the marginal CO2e emissions declared by the steel plant for 2020 was conducted.
world population in the period 2020-2100.
deaths in the period 2020-2100 attributable to the marginal CO2e emitted by the Taranto steel plant in 2020.
considering the central estimates in the baseline emission scenario (4.1°C warming by 2100), the Taranto steel plant 2020 CO2e emissions will cause 1,876 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100. The largest part will be attributable to steelmaking processes, accounting for 1,093 deaths. The same emissions will cause 5.56 × 10-4 deaths worldwide between 2020 and 2100 per tonne of steel produced in 2020, i.e. one death for every 1,799 tonnes of steel. If the 2020 CO2e emissions of the steel plant had been reduced by 25%, 50% or 75%, the deaths avoided in the world in the period 2020-2100 would have been 469, 938 and 1,407 respectively.
estimates predict a probably significant mortality impact worldwide by the end of the century associated with the greenhouse gases emissions of the Taranto steel plant. Just reducing emissions by 50% in a single year could maybe avoid over 900 deaths worldwide by the end of the century. This confirms the importance of implementing incisive policies to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in all sectors.
量化塔兰托钢铁厂二氧化碳当量排放对全球健康造成的与温度相关的影响。
利用文献中可用的风险函数，对该钢铁厂申报的2020年边际二氧化碳当量排放进行前瞻性全球健康影响评估。
2020年至2100年期间的世界人口。
2020年至2100年期间，因塔兰托钢铁厂2020年排放的边际二氧化碳当量导致的死亡人数。
考虑基线排放情景中的中心估计值（到2100年升温4.1°C），塔兰托钢铁厂2020年的二氧化碳当量排放将在2020年至2100年期间导致全球1876人死亡。其中大部分将归因于炼钢过程，占1093人死亡。同样的排放量将导致2020年至2100年期间全球每生产一吨2020年的钢铁有5.56×10⁻⁴人死亡，即每1799吨钢铁导致一人死亡。如果该钢铁厂2020年的二氧化碳当量排放减少25%、50%或75%，2020年至2100年期间全球避免的死亡人数将分别为469人、938人和1407人。
估计预测，到本世纪末，塔兰托钢铁厂的温室气体排放可能会对全球死亡率产生重大影响。仅在一年内将排放量减少50%，到本世纪末可能会避免全球900多人死亡。这证实了实施有力政策以减少所有部门温室气体排放的重要性。
