Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio Sede no. 1, Planta 1, Parque Científico de UPV/EHU, Barrio Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain.
Ikerbasque-Basque Foundation of Science, Bilbao, Spain.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 2;18(10):e0288341. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288341. eCollection 2023.
Limiting warming by the end of the century to 1.5°C compared to pre-Industrial times requires reaching and sustaining net zero global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and declining radiative forcing from non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) sources such as methane (CH4). This implies eliminating CO2 emissions or balancing them with removals while mitigating CH4 emissions to reduce their radiative forcing over time. The global cattle sector (including Buffalo) mainly emits CH4 and N2O and will benefit from understanding the extent and speed of CH4 reductions necessary to align its mitigation ambitions with global temperature goals. This study explores the utility of an alternative usage of global warming potentials (GWP*) in combination with the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) to compare retrospective and projected climate impacts of global livestock emission pathways with other sectors (e.g. fossil fuel and land use change). To illustrate this, we estimated the amount and fraction of total warming attributable to direct CH4 livestock emissions from 1750 to 2019 using existing emissions datasets and projected their contributions to future warming under three historical and three future emission scenarios. These historical and projected estimates were transformed into cumulative CO2 equivalent (GWP100) and warming equivalent (GWP*) emissions that were multiplied by a TCRE coefficient to express induced warming as globally averaged surface temperature change. In general, temperature change estimates from this study are comparable to those obtained from other climate models. Sustained annual reductions in CH4 emissions of 0.32% by the global cattle sector would stabilize their future effect on global temperature while greater reductions would reverse historical past contributions to global warming by the sector in a similar fashion to increasing C sinks. The extent and speed with which CH4 mitigation interventions are introduced by the sector will determine the peak temperature achieved in the path to net-zero GHG.
与工业化前相比,要在本世纪末将升温限制在 1.5°C,就需要实现并维持全球二氧化碳(CO2)净零排放,并减少甲烷(CH4)等非 CO2 温室气体(GHG)源的辐射强迫。这意味着要消除 CO2 排放,或者通过减排来平衡它们,同时减少 CH4 排放,以随着时间的推移降低其辐射强迫。全球牛科动物(包括水牛)主要排放 CH4 和 N2O,需要了解减少 CH4 排放以使其减排目标与全球温度目标保持一致所需的程度和速度。本研究探讨了使用全球变暖潜能值(GWP*)的替代用途与对累积碳排放量的瞬态气候响应(TCRE)相结合的效用,以比较全球牲畜排放途径与其他部门(如化石燃料和土地利用变化)的回溯和预测气候影响。为了说明这一点,我们使用现有的排放数据集估计了自 1750 年至 2019 年直接源自牲畜的 CH4 排放对总变暖的贡献量和所占份额,并根据三种历史和三种未来排放情景预测了它们对未来变暖的贡献。这些历史和预测的估计值被转化为累积 CO2 当量(GWP100)和变暖当量(GWP*)排放,然后乘以 TCRE 系数,以表示全球平均地表温度变化引起的变暖。总的来说,本研究的温度变化估计值与其他气候模型的结果相当。全球牛科动物每年持续减少 0.32%的 CH4 排放,将稳定其对全球温度的未来影响,而更大的减排量将以类似于增加碳汇的方式扭转该部门对过去全球变暖的贡献。该部门引入 CH4 减排干预措施的程度和速度将决定净零 GHG 道路上达到的峰值温度。