Department of Health Sciences, Laboratoire BioNR and Centre intersectoriel en santé durable (CISD), Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, Chicoutimi, Québec, Canada.
Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2024 Mar;31(1):125-137. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239. Epub 2023 Oct 20.
Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran's Road Safety Strategic Plan.
道路交通死亡（RTM）和伤害是全球人类死亡的主要原因之一，尤其是在伊朗等中低收入国家。我们采用中断时间序列分析方法，研究了三个干预点（两次政府强制提高燃油价格和增加交通罚单罚款）与 RTM 之间的潜在关系。研究结果表明，虽然在研究期间 RTM 的总体趋势呈下降趋势，但多个省份的 RTM 下降幅度较小。我们还发现，两次政府强制提高燃油价格都与 RTM 的下降同时发生。然而，第二次提高燃油价格与 RTM 下降的省份数量比第一次减少，表明相同类型的干预措施在重复使用时可能不再那么有效。此外，增加交通罚单罚款仅在少数省份有效。根据伊朗道路安全战略计划，对调查结果的潜在原因和解决方案进行了讨论。
