Ferranna Maddalena, Cadarette Daniel, Chen Simiao, Ghazi Parastou, Ross Faith, Zucker Leo, Bloom David E
Department of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics, Alfred E. Mann School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States of America.
Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 20;18(10):e0293144. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293144. eCollection 2023.
Noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions (referred to collectively as NMHs) are the greatest cause of preventable death, illness, and disability in South America and negatively affect countries' economic performance through their detrimental impacts on labor supply and capital investments. Sound, evidence-based policy-making requires a deep understanding of the macroeconomic costs of NMHs and of their distribution across countries and diseases. The paper estimates and projects the macroeconomic burden of NMHs over the period 2020-2050 in 10 South American countries. We estimate the impact of NMHs on gross domestic product (GDP) through a human capital-augmented production function approach, accounting for mortality and morbidity effects of NMHs on labor supply, for the impact of treatment costs on physical capital accumulation, and for variations in human capital by age. Our central estimates suggest that the overall burden of NMHs in these countries amounts to $7.3 trillion (2022 international $, 3% discount rate, 95% confidence interval: $6.8-$7.8 trillion). Overall, the macroeconomic burden of NMHs is around 4% of total GDP over 2020-2050, with little variation across countries (from 3.2% in Peru to 4.5% in Brazil). In other words, without NMHs, annual GDP over 2020-2050 would be about 4% larger. In most countries, the largest macroeconomic burden is associated with cancers. Results from the paper point to a significant macroeconomic burden of NMHs in South America and provide a strong justification for investment in NMH prevention, early detection, treatment, and formal and informal care.
非传染性疾病和精神健康状况（统称为NMHs）是南美洲可预防的死亡、疾病和残疾的最大原因，并通过对劳动力供应和资本投资的不利影响对各国的经济表现产生负面影响。合理的、基于证据的政策制定需要深入了解NMHs的宏观经济成本及其在各国和各种疾病中的分布情况。本文估计并预测了2020 - 2050年期间10个南美洲国家NMHs的宏观经济负担。我们通过人力资本增强生产函数方法估计NMHs对国内生产总值（GDP）的影响，考虑到NMHs对劳动力供应的死亡率和发病率影响、治疗成本对物质资本积累的影响以及不同年龄人力资本的差异。我们的核心估计表明，这些国家NMHs的总体负担达7.3万亿美元（2022年国际美元，3%的贴现率，95%置信区间：6.8 - 7.8万亿美元）。总体而言，2020 - 2050年期间NMHs的宏观经济负担约占GDP总量的4%，各国之间差异不大（从秘鲁的3.2%到巴西的4.5%）。换句话说，如果没有NMHs，2020 - 2050年期间的年GDP将大约增长4%。在大多数国家，最大的宏观经济负担与癌症相关。本文的研究结果表明南美洲NMHs存在重大宏观经济负担，并为投资于NMHs的预防、早期检测、治疗以及正式和非正式护理提供了有力理由。
