Hou Xiaohui, Anderson Ian, Burton-Mckenzie Ethan-John
Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice World Bank 1818 H. Street. NW, 20433 Washington DC, United States.
Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia & the Pacific, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
Health Policy Open. 2022 Jul 16;3:100073. doi: 10.1016/j.hpopen.2022.100073. eCollection 2022 Dec.
The Pacific Island Countries face some of the highest rates of Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs). This study estimates the economic costs of NCDs for each year from 2015 to 2040, focusing on eleven Pacific Island nations.Data and Methods:Two methods were used to estimate the mortality and morbidity costs using a 'value of lost output' and 'cost of illness' approach respectively.
Five results stand out in terms of projected economic costs of NCD mortality and morbidity analyses in the Pacific: (i) The economic burden of NCDs in the Pacific is greater than expected for middle-income countries; (ii) Although cardiovascular disease is the biggest contributor to the mortality burden in the region, diabetes plays a far greater role in the Pacific countries compared to the global average; (iii) The economic burden of NCDs is increasing with time, especially as incomes rise; (iv)The biggest driver of lost output is the potential loss of labor due to early death from NCDs; and (v) The cost of illness due to diabetes is high across the Pacific countries, with highest among the Polynesian countries.
NCDs alone can put enormous threat to the small Pacific economies. Targeted interventions to reduce disease prevalence, as outlined in the Pacific NCDs Roadmap, are vital to reduce the long-term costs associated with NCD mortality and morbidity.
太平洋岛国面临着一些最高的非传染性疾病（NCD）发病率。本研究估算了2015年至2040年每年非传染性疾病的经济成本，重点关注11个太平洋岛国。
分别采用“产出损失价值”和“疾病成本”方法，运用两种方式估算死亡率和发病率成本。
在太平洋地区非传染性疾病死亡率和发病率分析的预计经济成本方面，有五个结果较为突出：（i）太平洋地区非传染性疾病的经济负担高于中等收入国家的预期；（ii）尽管心血管疾病是该地区死亡负担的最大贡献者，但与全球平均水平相比，糖尿病在太平洋国家所起的作用要大得多；（iii）非传染性疾病的经济负担随着时间的推移而增加，尤其是随着收入的增加；（iv）产出损失的最大驱动因素是因非传染性疾病过早死亡导致的劳动力潜在损失；（v）太平洋国家因糖尿病导致的疾病成本很高，在波利尼西亚国家中最高。
仅非传染性疾病就会给太平洋地区的小国经济带来巨大威胁。如《太平洋非传染性疾病路线图》所述，采取有针对性的干预措施以降低疾病患病率，对于降低与非传染性疾病死亡率和发病率相关的长期成本至关重要。
