Qu Yuquan, Miralles Diego G, Veraverbeke Sander, Vereecken Harry, Montzka Carsten
Institute of Bio- and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany.
Hydro-Climate Extremes Lab, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 26;14(1):6829. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-42597-5.
In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down precursors dominate in the tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests. The bottom-up precursors dominate in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs. Our study identifies areas where wildfires are governed by fuel conditions and hence where fuel management practices may be more effective. Moreover, our study also highlights that top-down and bottom-up precursors show complementary wildfire predictability across timescales. Seasonal or interannual predictions are feasible in regions where bottom-up precursors dominate.
在世界上大部分地区，有利于野火发生的条件正变得越来越普遍。野火产生的净碳排放会形成一种正向的气候反馈，需要对其进行监测、量化和预测。在此，我们采用因果推断方法来评估自上而下的天气因素和自下而上的燃料前体对野火的影响。野火的自上而下主导比自下而上主导更为普遍，分别占区域的73.3%和26.7%。自上而下的前体在热带雨林、中纬度地区和东西伯利亚北方森林中占主导地位。自下而上的前体在北美和欧洲北方森林以及非洲和澳大利亚稀树草原中占主导地位。我们的研究确定了野火受燃料条件控制的区域，因此也是燃料管理措施可能更有效的区域。此外，我们的研究还强调，自上而下和自下而上的前体在不同时间尺度上显示出互补的野火可预测性。在自下而上的前体占主导地位的区域，季节性或年际预测是可行的。
