Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Avignon, France.
INRAE, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (UR 629), Avignon, France.
Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 14;10(1):13790. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70069-z.
Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.
由于气候变化，预计整个地中海盆地的野火活动将增加。然而，未来气候变化对促进野火活动的大气条件组合的影响在很大程度上仍然未知。我们使用火灾天气分类法，表明未来气候情景表明，与近年来最大的野火有关的两种热诱发火灾天气类型的频率将会增加。热诱发火灾天气类型的特点是在夏季热浪期间发生复合干燥和温暖的情况，要么是在中度干旱（热浪型）要么是强烈干旱（热干旱型）下。到本世纪末（2071-2100 年），在 RCP4.5 情景下，热诱发火灾天气的频率预计将增加 14%，在 RCP8.5 情景下，将增加 30%，这表明整个地中海盆地的大型野火的频率和范围将会增加。
