Ren Kehao, Miao Lipeng, Lyu Juncheng
Weifang Medical University, School of Public Health, China.
SSM Popul Health. 2023 Oct 5;24:101527. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101527. eCollection 2023 Dec.
Road traffic accidents are one of the critical disasters that cause massive negative influences to the social economy and people's property, health and life safety. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal trend of road traffic mortality in China from 2004 to 2020, and further analyze the key factors that the influencing changes in China's road traffic mortality and provides information for the development of targeted interventions to reduce the number of preventable deaths.
The data were retrieved from the Chinese Death Cause Monitoring Data Set from 2004 to 2020. The road traffic mortality rates were standardized by the Sixth National Population Census (6th NPC) data. Joinpoint regression method was manipulated to analyze temporal trends of standardized road traffic mortality. The study used annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) calculated by the Joinpoint regression model to describe trends in road traffic mortality rates.
The overall age-adjusted road traffic mortality in China showed a declining trend from 2004 to 2020 (AAPC = - 4.2%), from 20.9 to 12.92 per 100,000. Rural road traffic mortality rates were generally higher than the one in urban areas, and males were generally higher than females. There was an overall downward trend of the standardized road traffic mortality in the East and Central regions between 2004 and 2020. It was worth noting that the road traffic mortality rates in the Western region showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2011 (APC = 3.3%) and continued to decline after 2011 (APC = - 6.7%). The road traffic mortality rates of aged 65 years and older was highest, which required focused attention.
From 2004 to 2020, the road traffic mortality rates in China generally declined. At the same time, there was a slow reduction or even an upward trend in road traffic mortality rates among the elderly and in western regions. Rural males are a priority group for road traffic injury prevention.
道路交通事故是对社会经济以及人们财产、健康和生命安全造成巨大负面影响的重大灾害之一。本研究旨在分析2004年至2020年中国道路交通事故死亡率的时间趋势，并进一步分析影响中国道路交通事故死亡率变化的关键因素，为制定针对性干预措施以减少可预防死亡人数提供信息。
数据取自2004年至2020年中国死因监测数据集。道路交通事故死亡率采用第六次全国人口普查（第六次人普）数据进行标准化。采用Joinpoint回归方法分析标准化道路交通事故死亡率的时间趋势。本研究使用Joinpoint回归模型计算的年度百分比变化（APC）和平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）来描述道路交通事故死亡率的趋势。
2004年至2020年，中国总体年龄调整后的道路交通事故死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC = -4.2%），从每10万人20.9例降至12.92例。农村道路交通事故死亡率普遍高于城市地区，男性普遍高于女性。2004年至2020年，东部和中部地区标准化道路交通事故死亡率总体呈下降趋势。值得注意的是，西部地区道路交通事故死亡率在2006年至2011年呈上升趋势（APC = 3.3%），2011年后继续下降（APC = -6.7%）。65岁及以上人群的道路交通事故死亡率最高，需要重点关注。
2004年至2020年，中国道路交通事故死亡率总体呈下降趋势。与此同时，老年人和西部地区的道路交通事故死亡率下降缓慢甚至呈上升趋势。农村男性是道路交通事故预防的重点人群。
