Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Biológicas Aplicadas, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Instituto Literario 100, Colonia Centro, 50000, Toluca, Estado de México, Mexico.
Laboratorio de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Instituto Literario 100, Colonia Centro, 50000, Toluca, Estado de México, Mexico.
Naturwissenschaften. 2023 Oct 27;110(6):52. doi: 10.1007/s00114-023-01880-7.
Anthropogenic land use and climate change are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for many globally endangered reptile species. Earth snakes (Conopsis spp.) are a poorly studied group endemic to Mexico. They have limited dispersal abilities and specialized niches, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to assess how future climate and land-cover change scenarios might influence the distribution and habitat connectivity of three earth snakes: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith), C. lineata (Kennicott), and C. nasus (Günther). Two climate models, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) (Representative Concentration Pathway 85), were explored with ENMeval Maxent modelling. Important SDM environmental variables and environmental niche overlap between species were also examined. We found that C. biserialis and C. lineata were restricted by maximum temperatures whereas C. nasus was restricted by minimum ones and was more tolerant to arid vegetation. C. biserialis and C. lineata were primarily distributed in the valleys and mountains of the highlands of the TMBV, while C. nasus was mainly distributed in the Altiplano Sur (Zacatecano-Potosino). C. lineata had the smallest potential distribution and suffered the greatest contraction in the future whereas C. nasus was the least affected species in future scenarios. The Sierra de las Cruces and the Sierra Chichinautzin were identified as very important areas for connectivity. Our results suggest that C. lineata may be the most vulnerable of the three species to anthropogenic and climate changes whereas C. nasus seems to be less affected by global warming than the other species.
人为土地利用和气候变化是生物多样性面临的最大威胁，尤其是对许多全球濒危爬行动物物种而言。地蛇（Conopsis spp.）是墨西哥特有的一个研究较少的群体。它们的扩散能力有限，生境独特，因此特别容易受到人为威胁的影响。物种分布模型（SDM）被用于评估未来气候和土地覆盖变化情景如何影响三种地蛇（Conopsis biserialis（Taylor 和 Smith）、C. lineata（Kennicott）和 C. nasus（Günther））的分布和生境连通性。我们探讨了两种气候模型，即 CNRM-CM5（CN）和 MPI-ESM-LR（MP）（代表性浓度路径 85），并使用 ENMeval Maxent 模型进行了建模。我们还检查了重要的 SDM 环境变量和物种之间的环境生态位重叠。我们发现，C. biserialis 和 C. lineata 受到最高温度的限制，而 C. nasus 受到最低温度的限制，并且对干旱植被的耐受性更强。C. biserialis 和 C. lineata 主要分布在 TMBV 高地的山谷和山脉中，而 C. nasus 主要分布在 Altiplano Sur（Zacatecano-Potosino）。C. lineata 的潜在分布最小，未来收缩幅度最大，而 C. nasus 是未来情景中受影响最小的物种。Chichinautzin 山脉和 Cruz de las Cruces 山脉被确定为连通性非常重要的区域。我们的结果表明，C. lineata 可能是三种物种中最易受到人为和气候变化影响的物种，而 C. nasus 似乎比其他物种受全球变暖的影响更小。
