Hospital Resource Planning for Mass Casualty Incidents: Limitations for Coping with Multiple Injured Patients.

Using a discrete-event simulation (DES) model, the current disaster plan regarding the allocation of multiple injured patients from a mass casualty incident was evaluated for an acute specialty hospital in Vienna, Austria. With the current resources available, the results showed that the number of severely injured patients currently assigned might have to wait longer than the medically justifiable limit for lifesaving surgery. Furthermore, policy scenarios of increasing staff and/or equipment did not lead to a sufficient improvement of this outcome measure. However, the mean target waiting time for critical treatment of moderately injured patients could be met under all policy scenarios. Using simulation-optimization, an optimal staff-mix could be found for an illustrative policy scenario. In addition, a multiple regression model of simulated staff-mix policy scenarios identified staff categories (number of radiologists and rotation physicians) with the highest impact on waiting time and survival. In the short term, the current hospital disaster plan should consider reducing the number of severely injured patients to be treated. In the long term, we would recommend expanding hospital capacity-in terms of both structural and human resources as well as improving regional disaster planning. Policymakers should also consider the limitations of this study when applying these insights to different areas or circumstances.