Laboratory of Studies Design and Scientific Writing, Postgraduate Division, University Center FMABC, Santo André 09060-870, SP, Brazil.
Department of Integrated Health Education, Federal University of Espirito Santo, Vitoria 29075-910, ES, Brazil.
Viruses. 2023 Sep 28;15(10):2016. doi: 10.3390/v15102016.
Northeast Brazil is a region with great international tourist potential. Among the states that make up this region, Paraíba stands out due to the presence of vulnerable groups and factors that contribute to adverse outcomes of COVID-19. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the epidemiological data on the incidence, mortality, and case fatality of COVID-19 in Paraíba. An ecological, population-based study was performed, with data extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health database. All cases and deaths from COVID-19 from March 2020 to December 2022 were included. The time series was built by applying the Prais-Winsten regression model, and the daily percent change was calculated to analyze the trends. The highest case fatality of the entire period was in April 2020 (7.8%), but in March 2021, the state broke the dismal record of 1248 deaths and the highest mortality rate (30.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Stationary mortality and case fatality were better in 2022; however, in February 2022, the mortality rate was at levels similar to the same month of the previous year. These results illustrate that COVID-19 is evolving and needs to be constantly monitored.
巴西东北部是一个具有巨大国际旅游潜力的地区。在构成该地区的各州中，帕拉伊巴州因其弱势群体的存在以及导致 COVID-19 不良结果的因素而引人注目。因此，本研究旨在分析 COVID-19 在帕拉伊巴州的发病率、死亡率和病死率的流行病学数据。这是一项基于人群的生态研究，数据来自巴西卫生部数据库。纳入了 2020 年 3 月至 2022 年 12 月期间 COVID-19 的所有病例和死亡。通过应用普赖斯-温斯坦回归模型构建时间序列，并计算每日百分比变化来分析趋势。整个时期病死率最高的是 2020 年 4 月（7.8%），但在 2021 年 3 月，该州打破了 1248 例死亡和最高死亡率（每 10 万居民 30.5 例死亡）的惨淡纪录。2022 年死亡率和病死率更为稳定；然而，在 2022 年 2 月，死亡率与去年同月的水平相似。这些结果表明 COVID-19 在不断演变，需要持续监测。
