Martire Junior Lybio Jose, Pereira Gabrielle do Amaral Virginio, Cavalcante Matheus Paiva Emidio, Barreto Yasmin Esther, Macedo Hugo, Figueira Fernando Augusto Marinho Dos Santos, Andrade Romildo Luiz Monteiro, de Abreu Luiz Carlos
Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences, Centro Universitário da Faculdade de Medicina do ABC, Santo André 09060-650, SP, Brazil.
COVID-19 Observatory Brazil and Ireland, School of Medicine, University of Limerick, V94 T9PX Limerick, Ireland.
Epidemiologia (Basel). 2025 Feb 6;6(1):6. doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia6010006.
COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which belongs to the coronavirus family. SARS-CoV-2 is related to other viruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome. The emergence of cases of pneumonia of unknown origin triggered the largest viral pandemic in modern times, presenting major challenges to global public health.
To analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of São Paulo from 2020 to 2023, focusing on trends in incidence, mortality, and lethality.
Ecological study of time series of incidence, mortality and lethality by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo using Prais-Winsten regression considering the Weekly Percentage Change (WPC) and probability values (p), considering a significance level of 95% (95% CI). To ensure the reliability of the entered data, double-blind typing was performed by different researchers in the same database extracted from the 2024 Ministry of Health Coronavirus dashboard.
From February 2020 and the end of December 2023, 6,763,310 accumulated cases and 182,254 deaths were recorded. Stationary trends were observed for the year 2022, with a reduction in incidence and mortality in the year 2023. However, the epidemiological variable lethality showed a stationary trend.
The analysis of the trends in incidence, mortality, and lethality revealed variable dynamics over time, with emphasis on the significant reduction of these indicators in 2023.
新冠病毒病（COVID-19）是一种由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的呼吸道疾病，SARS-CoV-2属于冠状病毒科。SARS-CoV-2与其他导致严重急性呼吸综合征的病毒有关。不明原因肺炎病例的出现引发了现代史上最大规模的病毒大流行，给全球公共卫生带来了重大挑战。
分析2020年至2023年圣保罗州新冠病毒病大流行的演变情况，重点关注发病率、死亡率和致死率的趋势。
采用普雷斯-温斯坦回归法，考虑周百分比变化（WPC）和概率值（p），以95%（95%置信区间）的显著性水平，对圣保罗州新冠病毒病的发病率、死亡率和致死率时间序列进行生态研究。为确保输入数据的可靠性，由不同研究人员对从2024年卫生部冠状病毒信息平台提取的同一数据库进行双盲录入。
从2020年2月至2023年12月底，共记录了6763310例累计病例和182254例死亡病例。2022年观察到平稳趋势，2023年发病率和死亡率有所下降。然而，流行病学变量致死率呈平稳趋势。
对发病率、死亡率和致死率趋势的分析揭示了随时间变化的不同动态，重点是2023年这些指标的显著下降。
