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一个用于研究中国潜在乙肝病毒感染及疫苗接种策略效果的数学模型。

A Mathematical Model to Study the Potential Hepatitis B Virus Infections and Effects of Vaccination Strategies in China.

作者信息

Xu Chuanqing, Wang Yu, Cheng Kedeng, Yang Xin, Wang Xiaojing, Guo Songbai, Liu Maoxing, Liu Xiaoling

机构信息

School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044, China.

Mathematics Department, Hanshan Normal University, Chaozhou 521041, China.

出版信息

Vaccines (Basel). 2023 Sep 27;11(10):1530. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11101530.

DOI:10.3390/vaccines11101530
PMID:37896934
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10610674/
Abstract

MOTIVATIONS

Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Approximately 390,000 people in China die from HBV-related diseases each year. Around 86 million individuals suffer from infections of the hepatitis B virus, accounting for about 6% of the total population in the region. There are approximately 30 million chronic infections. From 2002 to 2007, China's government took part in "The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)" initiative, which helped reduce cases of chronic HBV infections among children. However, incidences of hepatitis B remain persistently high in China. Accurately estimating the number of potential HBV infections is crucial for preventing and controlling the transmission of the hepatitis B virus. Up until now, there were no studies of potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections.

METHODS

this study was based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021; a dynamic model was built, which included a compartment for potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. The parameters in the model were fitted using a combination of nonlinear least-squares and genetic algorithm methods.

RESULTS

the calculated reproduction number for hepatitis B virus transmission within the population is Rc = 1.741. Considering the existing vaccine inefficiency rate of 0.1, the model estimates there are 449,535 (95%CI [415,651, 483,420]) potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections, constituting 30.49% of total hepatitis B cases. Date fitting using MATLAB reveals that increasing the rate of hepatitis B vaccinations can effectively reduce the number of infections.

CONCLUSIONS

the results reveal that the number of potential infectious hepatitis B virus infections is so high that the number of hepatitis B patients persistently rises in China. To better control the transmission of the hepatitis B virus, an optional prevention and control strategy is needed to increase the vaccination of different age groups, and it is necessary to help the public correctly understand the transmission of hepatitis B and ensure adequate protection.

摘要

动机

乙型肝炎是一种由乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）引起的潜在威胁生命的传染病。中国每年约有39万人死于与HBV相关的疾病。约8600万人感染乙型肝炎病毒，约占该地区总人口的6%。慢性感染人数约为3000万。2002年至2007年，中国政府参与了“全球疫苗免疫联盟（GAVI）”倡议，这有助于减少儿童慢性HBV感染病例。然而，中国乙型肝炎的发病率仍然居高不下。准确估计潜在HBV感染人数对于预防和控制乙型肝炎病毒传播至关重要。到目前为止，尚未有关于潜在传染性乙型肝炎病毒感染的研究。

方法

本研究基于中国国家统计局2003年至2021年的数据；建立了一个动态模型，其中包括一个潜在传染性乙型肝炎病毒感染的隔间。模型中的参数使用非线性最小二乘法和遗传算法相结合的方法进行拟合。

结果

计算得出人群中乙型肝炎病毒传播的再生数为Rc = 1.741。考虑到现有疫苗0.1的低效率，模型估计有449535例（95%CI [415651, 483420]）潜在传染性乙型肝炎病毒感染，占乙型肝炎病例总数的30.49%。使用MATLAB进行数据拟合表明，提高乙型肝炎疫苗接种率可有效减少感染人数。

结论

结果显示，潜在传染性乙型肝炎病毒感染人数众多，导致中国乙型肝炎患者数量持续上升。为了更好地控制乙型肝炎病毒的传播，需要一种可选的防控策略来提高不同年龄组的疫苗接种率，并且有必要帮助公众正确了解乙型肝炎的传播方式并确保提供充分的保护。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/caadbeabaf56/vaccines-11-01530-g012.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/c1a8c4d868cf/vaccines-11-01530-g011.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/caadbeabaf56/vaccines-11-01530-g012.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/cd2322bedb85/vaccines-11-01530-g001.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/a423a12aad54/vaccines-11-01530-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/5cb465f5edcb/vaccines-11-01530-g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/630231ec74bc/vaccines-11-01530-g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9ef4/10610674/d9cac075cc10/vaccines-11-01530-g009.jpg
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