School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China.
School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 10;907:168184. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168184. Epub 2023 Oct 29.
Long- and short-term exposure to constituents of fine particulate matter (PM) substantially affects human health. However, assessments of the health and economic benefits of reducing PM constituents are scarce. This study estimates the number of premature deaths from all-cause, cardiovascular (CVD), and respiratory diseases avoided due to reductions in daily and annual average concentrations of PM constituents. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program was used for two scenarios: we used yearly concentrations of PM constituents from 2013 to 2020 as the baseline concentration surface (Scenario I), and 2021 as the baseline year (Scenario II). With reductions in daily and annual average concentrations of PM constituents, 309,099 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 37,265-571,485) and 195,297 (95 % CI: 178,192-211,914) premature deaths were avoided in Scenario I, respectively; meanwhile, 347,296 (95 % CI: 79,258-604,758) and 201,567 (95 % CI: 185,038-217,530) premature deaths were avoided in Scenario II, respectively. Moreover, economic benefits associated with the prevention of premature deaths were estimated using the willingness to pay (WTP) and modified human capital (AHC) methods. The total estimated economic benefits amounted to 563.32 billion RMB (WTP) and 322.03 billion RMB (AHC) in Scenario I. In Scenario II, the associated economic benefits were 751.48 billion RMB (WTP) and 427.56 billion RMB (AHC), accounting for 0.657 and 0.374 % of China's gross domestic product in 2021, respectively. Additionally, we analyzed the sensitivity of CVD-related premature deaths to the concentrations of PM constituents, and found that CVD-related premature deaths were more sensitive to black carbon.
长期和短期暴露于细颗粒物（PM）的成分会对人类健康产生重大影响。然而，评估减少 PM 成分对健康和经济效益的评估却很少。本研究估计了由于减少每日和年平均 PM 成分浓度而避免的所有原因、心血管（CVD）和呼吸道疾病导致的过早死亡人数。使用环境效益制图和分析程序（Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program）进行了两种情况的分析：我们使用 2013 年至 2020 年的 PM 成分年浓度作为基线浓度表面（情景 I），并将 2021 年作为基线年（情景 II）。随着 PM 成分的日平均浓度和年平均浓度的降低，情景 I 分别避免了 309099（95%置信区间[CI]：37265-571485）和 195297（95%CI：178192-211914）例过早死亡；同时，情景 II 分别避免了 347296（95%CI：79258-604758）和 201567（95%CI：185038-217530）例过早死亡。此外，还使用支付意愿（WTP）和修正人力资本（AHC）方法估算了预防过早死亡带来的经济效益。情景 I 中总估计经济效益达到 5633.2 亿元人民币（WTP）和 3220.3 亿元人民币（AHC）。在情景 II 中，相关经济效益为 7514.8 亿元人民币（WTP）和 4275.6 亿元人民币（AHC），分别占 2021 年中国国内生产总值的 0.657%和 0.374%。此外，我们还分析了 CVD 相关过早死亡对 PM 成分浓度的敏感性，发现 CVD 相关过早死亡对黑碳更为敏感。
