College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jun 1;719:137445. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137445. Epub 2020 Feb 19.
In recent years, particulate matter (PM) air pollution has become a significant and growing public health problem in China. In this study, the daily PM exposure level at a spatial resolution of 100 km was simulated based on the data of 1328 monitoring sites and the Voronoi Neighborhood Averaging (VNA) interpolation method. The results reveal that the daily mean PM concentration reduced from 47.82 μg/m (2016) to 40.87 μg/m (2018), a reduction of 14.53%. We first calculated the heath impacts and economic benefits of this reduction (Scenario 1) by using Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). The estimated avoided premature mortalities for all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and lung cancer were in the range of 7214 to 81,681 cases (total of 154,176 cases). The estimated economic benefits based on willingness to pay (WTP) ranged from 3.96 to 44.85 billion RMB (total of 84.66 billion RMB). Moreover, the PM concentration in the control scenario was rolled back to the Grade I standards (35 μg/m, Scenario 2). The avoided deaths are in the range of 58,820 to 590,464 cases (total of 1,217,671 cases). The estimated monetary value of the avoided cases of all health endpoints range from 36.63 to 367.66 billion RMB based on WTP (total of 758.21 billion RMB). In addition, the spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals that the distribution of both avoided premature mortality and economic benefits exhibit a certain spatial aggregation.
近年来，颗粒物（PM）空气污染已成为中国一个重大且日益严重的公共卫生问题。本研究基于 1328 个监测站点的数据和 Voronoi 邻域平均（VNA）插值方法，模拟了空间分辨率为 100km 的每日 PM 暴露水平。结果表明，每日 PM 浓度平均值从 2016 年的 47.82μg/m 降低至 2018 年的 40.87μg/m，降幅为 14.53%。我们首先使用环境效益制图和分析程序（BenMAP）计算了这一减排量的健康影响和经济效益（情景 1）。预计所有原因、心血管疾病、呼吸疾病和肺癌的避免过早死亡人数在 7214 至 81681 例（共计 154176 例）之间。基于支付意愿（WTP）的估计经济收益范围在 39.6 亿至 448.5 亿元人民币（共计 846.6 亿元人民币）之间。此外，将控制情景中的 PM 浓度回退到一级标准（35μg/m，情景 2）。避免的死亡人数在 58820 至 590464 例（共计 1217671 例）之间。基于 WTP，避免所有健康终点案例的货币价值估计范围为 36.63 亿至 367.66 亿元人民币（共计 758.21 亿元人民币）。此外，空间自相关分析表明，避免的过早死亡率和经济效益的分布都表现出一定的空间聚集性。
