Pierce John P, Luo Man, McMenamin Sara B, Stone Matthew D, Leas Eric C, Strong David, Shi Yuyan, Kealey Sheila, Benmarhnia Tarik, Messer Karen
Division of Health Policy, Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
Cancer Control Program, Moores Cancer Center, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Tob Control. 2025 May 15;34(3):286-293. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057907.
To compare trends in cigarette smoking and nicotine vaping among US population aged 17-18 years and 18-24 years.
Regression analyses identified trends in ever and current use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes, using three US representative surveys from 1992 to 2022.
From 1997 to 2020, cigarette smoking prevalence among those aged 18-24 years decreased from 29.1% (95% CI 27.4% to 30.7%) to 5.4% (95% CI 3.9% to 6.9%). The decline was highly correlated with a decline in past 30-day smoking among those aged 17-18 years (1997: 36.8% (95% CI 35.6% to 37.9%; 2022: 3.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 4.1%). From 2017 to 2019, both ever-vaping and past 30-day nicotine vaping (11.0% to 25.5%) surged among those 17-18 years, however there was no increase among those aged 18-24 years. Regression models demonstrated that the surge in vaping was independent of the decline in cigarette smoking. In the 24 most populous US states, exclusive vaping did increase among those aged 18-24 years, from 1.7% to 4.0% to equivalent to 40% of the decline in cigarette smoking between 2014-15 and 2018-19. Across these US states, the correlation between the changes in vaping and smoking prevalence was low (r=0.11). In the two US states with >US$1/fluid mL tax on e-cigarettes in 2017, cigarette smoking declined faster than the US average.
Since 1997, a large decline in cigarette smoking occurred in the US population under age 24 years, that was independent of the 2017-19 adolescent surge in past 30-day e-cigarette vaping. Further research is needed to assess whether the 2014-15 to 2018-19 increase in exclusive vaping in those aged 18-24 years is a cohort effect from earlier dependence on e-cigarette vaping as adolescents.
比较美国17 - 18岁和18 - 24岁人群中吸烟和吸电子烟的趋势。
利用1992年至2022年的三项美国代表性调查，通过回归分析确定曾经吸烟和目前吸烟以及吸电子烟的趋势。
从1997年到2020年，18 - 24岁人群的吸烟率从29.1%（95%置信区间27.4%至30.7%）降至5.4%（95%置信区间3.9%至6.9%）。这一下降与17 - 18岁人群过去30天吸烟率的下降高度相关（1997年：36.8%（95%置信区间35.6%至37.9%）；2022年：3.0%（95%置信区间1.8%至4.1%）。从2017年到2019年，17 - 18岁人群中曾经吸电子烟和过去30天吸尼古丁电子烟的比例（从11.0%升至25.5%）均大幅上升，然而18 - 24岁人群中这一比例并未增加。回归模型表明，吸电子烟的增加与吸烟率的下降无关。在美国人口最多的24个州，18 - 24岁人群中单纯吸电子烟的比例确实有所增加，从1.7%升至4.0%，相当于2014 - 15年至2018 - 19年期间吸烟率下降幅度的40%。在这些美国州中，吸电子烟和吸烟率变化之间的相关性较低（r = 0.11）。在2017年对电子烟征收每毫升超过1美元税的两个美国州，吸烟率下降速度快于美国平均水平。
自1997年以来，美国24岁以下人群的吸烟率大幅下降，这与2017 - 19年青少年过去30天吸电子烟的激增无关。需要进一步研究来评估2014 - 15年至2018 - 19年期间18 - 24岁人群中单纯吸电子烟的增加是否是青少年早期对吸电子烟产生依赖的队列效应。
