College of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
Nan'an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, China.
BMC Infect Dis. 2023 Nov 16;23(1):803. doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08799-4.
According to the World Health Organization, foodborne disease is a significant public health issue. We will choose the best model to predict foodborne disease by comparison, to provide evidence for government policies to prevent foodborne illness.
The foodborne disease monthly incidence data from June 2017 to April 2022 were obtained from the Chongqing Nan'an District Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Data from June 2017 to June 2021 were used to train the model, and the last 10 months of incidence were used for prediction and validation The incidence was fitted using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, Holt-Winters model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model. Besides, we used MSE, MAE, RMSE to determine which model fits better.
During June 2017 to April 2022, the incidence of foodborne disease showed seasonal changes, the months with the highest incidence are June to November. The optimal model of SARIMA is SARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,0). The MSE, MAE, RMSE of the Holt-Winters model are 8.78, 2.33 and 2.96 respectively, which less than those of the SARIMA and ETS model, and its prediction curve is closer to the true value. The optimal model has good predictive performance.
Based on the results, Holt-Winters model produces better prediction accuracy of the model.
根据世界卫生组织的数据，食源性疾病是一个重大的公共卫生问题。我们将通过比较选择最佳模型来预测食源性疾病，为政府预防食源性疾病的政策提供依据。
从重庆市南岸区疾病预防控制中心获取 2017 年 6 月至 2022 年 4 月的食源性疾病月发病率数据。利用 2017 年 6 月至 2021 年 6 月的数据对模型进行训练，最后 10 个月的发病率用于预测和验证。使用季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型、Holt-Winters 模型和指数平滑（ETS）模型对发病率进行拟合。此外，我们使用 MSE、MAE、RMSE 来确定哪个模型拟合得更好。
2017 年 6 月至 2022 年 4 月，食源性疾病的发病率呈季节性变化，发病率最高的月份是 6 月至 11 月。SARIMA 的最佳模型是 SARIMA（1,0,0）（1,1,0）。Holt-Winters 模型的 MSE、MAE、RMSE 分别为 8.78、2.33 和 2.96，均小于 SARIMA 和 ETS 模型，其预测曲线更接近真实值。最优模型具有良好的预测性能。
根据结果，Holt-Winters 模型对模型的预测精度更高。
