Population genomic and biophysical modeling show different patterns of population connectivity in the spiny lobster Jasus frontalis inhabiting oceanic islands.

Knowledge about connectivity between populations is essential for the fisheries management of commercial species. The lobster Jasus frontalis inhabits two oceanic island groups, the Juan Fernández Archipelago and the Desventuradas Islands, separated by 800 km. Since this species is primarily exploited in the Juan Fernández Archipelago, knowledge of the connectivity patterns among islands is foundational for species management. Here, we used variability at single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and individual-based modeling (IBM) to estimate the genetic structure and connectivity between J. frontalis populations in these island groups. The variability at 9090 SNPs suggests two genetic populations, one in the Juan Fernández Archipelago and one in the Desventuradas Islands. Furthermore, IBM suggests an asymmetric connectivity pattern, with particles moving from the Juan Fernández Archipelago to the Desventuradas Islands but not vice versa. Since the IBM analysis suggests asymmetric larval movement between the islands, and the genetic analysis indicates isolation between the Juan Fernández Archipelago and the Desventuradas Islands, larval retention mechanisms such as small-scale oceanographic processes or behavior could hinder larval movement between islands. This study highlights the importance of using more than one methodology to estimate population connectivity.