Xia Xiaosheng, Ren Peiyang, Wang Xuhui, Liu Dan, Chen Xiuzhi, Dan Li, He Bin, He Honglin, Ju Weimin, Liang Minqi, Lu Xingjie, Peng Jing, Qin Zhangcai, Xia Jiangzhou, Zheng Bo, Wei Jing, Yue Xu, Yu Guirui, Piao Shilong, Yuan Wenping
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Guangdong Province Data Center of Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems Carbon Cycle, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 510245, China.
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100091, China.
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2024 Jan 15;69(1):114-124. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.11.016. Epub 2023 Nov 7.
As one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China has set itself the ambitious goal of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify the magnitude and trend of sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO), and to monitor China's progress toward these goals. Using state-of-the-art datasets and models, this study comprehensively estimated the anthropogenic CO emissions from energy, industrial processes and product use, and waste along with natural sources and sinks of CO for all of China during 1980-2021. To recognize the differences among various methods of estimating greenhouse emissions, the estimates are compared with China's National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) for 1994, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Anthropogenic CO emissions in China have increased by 7.39 times from 1980 to 12.77 Gt CO a in 2021. While benefiting from ecological projects (e.g., Three Norths Shelter Forest System Project), the land carbon sink in China has reached 1.65 Gt CO a averaged through 2010-2021, which is almost 15.81 times that of the carbon sink in the 1980s. On average, China's terrestrial ecosystems offset 14.69% ± 2.49% of anthropogenic CO emissions through 2010-2021. Two provincial-level administrative regions of China, Xizang and Qinghai, have achieved carbon neutrality according to our estimates, but nearly half of the administrative regions of China have terrestrial carbon sink offsets of less than 10% of anthropogenic CO emissions. This study indicated a high level of consistency between NGHGIs and various datasets used for estimating fossil CO emissions, but found notable differences for land carbon sinks. Future estimates of the terrestrial carbon sinks of NGHGIs urgently need to be verified with process-based models which integrate the comprehensive carbon cycle processes.
作为全球最大的温室气体排放国之一，中国为自己设定了实现碳达峰和碳中和的宏伟目标。因此，量化大气二氧化碳（CO₂）源汇的规模和趋势，并监测中国在实现这些目标方面的进展至关重要。本研究利用最先进的数据集和模型，全面估算了1980—2021年期间中国所有地区能源、工业生产过程和产品使用以及废弃物产生的人为CO₂排放，以及CO₂的自然源和汇。为了认识到估算温室气体排放的各种方法之间的差异，将这些估算结果与中国1994年、2005年、2010年、2012年和2014年的国家温室气体清单（NGHGIs）进行了比较。中国的人为CO₂排放量从1980年到2021年的12.77 Gt CO₂增加了7.39倍。尽管受益于生态工程（如三北防护林体系工程），2010—2021年期间中国陆地碳汇平均达到1.65 Gt CO₂，几乎是20世纪80年代碳汇的15.81倍。2010—2021年期间，中国陆地生态系统平均抵消了14.69%±2.49%的人为CO₂排放。根据我们的估算，中国的两个省级行政区西藏和青海已实现碳中和，但近一半的省级行政区陆地碳汇抵消量不到人为CO₂排放量的10%。本研究表明，NGHGIs与用于估算化石CO₂排放的各种数据集之间具有高度一致性，但发现陆地碳汇存在显著差异。NGHGIs未来对陆地碳汇的估算迫切需要用整合了综合碳循环过程的基于过程的模型进行验证。
