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ASAS-NANP 研讨会:动物营养中的数学建模:基于代理的牲畜系统建模:开发和应用的力学。

ASAS-NANP symposium: mathematical modeling in animal nutrition: agent-based modeling for livestock systems: the mechanics of development and application.

机构信息

Department of Animal Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2471, USA.

出版信息

J Anim Sci. 2023 Jan 3;101. doi: 10.1093/jas/skad321.

Abstract

Over the last three decades, agent-based modeling/model (ABM) has been one of the most powerful and valuable simulation-based decision modeling techniques used to study the complex dynamic interactions between animals and their environment. ABM is a relatively new modeling technique in the animal research arena, with immense potential for routine decision-making in livestock systems. We describe ABM's fundamental characteristics for developing intelligent modeling systems, exemplify its use for livestock production, and describe commonly used software for designing and developing ABM. After that, we discuss several aspects of the developmental mechanics of an ABM, including (1) how livestock researchers can conceptualize and design a model, (2) the main components of an ABM, (3) different statistical methods of analyzing the outputs, and (4) verification, validation, and replication of an ABM. Then, we perform an overall analysis of the utilities of ABM in different subsystems of the livestock systems ranging from epidemiological prediction to nutritional management to livestock market dynamics. Finally, we discuss the concept of hybrid intelligent models (i.e., merging real-time data streams with intelligent ABM), which have applications in artificial intelligence-based decision-making for precision livestock farming. ABM captures individual agents' characteristics, interactions, and the emergent properties that arise from these interactions; thus, animal scientists can benefit from ABM in multiple ways, including understanding system-level outcomes, analyzing agent behaviors, exploring different scenarios, and evaluating policy interventions. Several platforms for building ABM exist (e.g., NetLogo, Repast J, and AnyLogic), but they have unique features making one more suitable for solving specific problems. The strengths of ABM can be combined with other modeling approaches, including artificial intelligence, allowing researchers to advance our understanding further and contribute to sustainable livestock management practices. There are many ways to develop and apply mathematical models in livestock production that might assist with sustainable development. However, users must be experienced when choosing the appropriate modeling technique and computer platform (i.e., modeling development tool) that will facilitate the adoption of mathematical models by certifying that the model is field-ready and versatile enough for untrained users.

摘要

在过去的三十年中,基于代理的建模/模型(ABM)一直是用于研究动物与其环境之间复杂动态相互作用的最强大和最有价值的模拟决策建模技术之一。ABM 是动物研究领域中的一种相对较新的建模技术,在畜牧业系统中的常规决策制定中具有巨大的潜力。我们描述了 ABM 用于开发智能建模系统的基本特征,举例说明了其在畜牧业生产中的应用,并描述了用于设计和开发 ABM 的常用软件。之后,我们讨论了 ABM 的几个发展机制方面,包括(1) 家畜研究人员如何概念化和设计模型,(2)ABM 的主要组成部分,(3)分析输出的不同统计方法,以及(4)ABM 的验证、确认和复制。然后,我们对 ABM 在畜牧业系统的不同子系统中的应用进行了全面分析,范围从流行病学预测到营养管理到畜牧业市场动态。最后,我们讨论了混合智能模型(即实时数据流与智能 ABM 的融合)的概念,该模型在基于人工智能的精确畜牧业决策中有应用。ABM 捕获个体代理的特征、相互作用以及这些相互作用产生的涌现性质;因此,动物科学家可以从 ABM 中受益,包括了解系统级结果、分析代理行为、探索不同情景和评估政策干预。存在多个用于构建 ABM 的平台(例如 NetLogo、Repast J 和 AnyLogic),但它们具有独特的功能,使得其中一个更适合解决特定问题。ABM 的优势可以与其他建模方法(如人工智能)相结合,从而使研究人员能够进一步提高对可持续畜牧业管理实践的理解。在畜牧业生产中,有许多方法可以开发和应用数学模型来帮助实现可持续发展。但是,用户在选择合适的建模技术和计算机平台(即建模开发工具)时必须具备丰富的经验,以确保模型是经过现场验证的,并且足够灵活,可供非专业用户使用。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7d33/10664392/ef50f13a6bea/skad321_fig1.jpg

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