Ji Xiaoxia, Chen Jingxian, Ye Junjun, Xu Shuochun, Lin Benwei, Hou Kaijian
Medical College, Shantou University, Shantou 515031, China.
School of Public Health, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China.
Healthcare (Basel). 2023 Nov 7;11(22):2920. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11222920.
The objective of this study was to understand dynamic global and regional lung cancer fatality trends and provide a foundation for effective global lung cancer prevention and treatment strategies. Data from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) database and statistical analysis was conducted using Excel 2010. Standardization was based on the GBD's world population structure, and the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) predicted global lung cancer mortality from 2020 to 2030. In 2019, worldwide lung cancer deaths reached 2,042,600, a 91.75% increase from 1990 (1,065,100). The standardized age-specific death rate in 2019 was 25.18 per 100,000. Males had a rate of 37.38 while females had 14.99. Men saw a decreasing trend while women experienced an increase. High- and medium-high-SDI regions had declining rates (-0.3 and -0.8 AAPCs) whereas middle-, low-, and low-middle-SDI regions had increased mortality rates (AAPC = 0.1, AAPC = 0.37, AAPC = 0.13). Several regions, including Oceania, South Asia, East Asia, Western Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, witnessed rising global lung cancer mortality rates ( < 0.01). The global standardized mortality rate for lung cancer is expected to decrease from 2020 to 2030, but predictions indicate increasing female mortality and decreasing male mortality. Despite overall declines, rising female mortality remains a concern. Effective measures are essential to reduce mortality rates and improve patients' quality of life in the global fight against lung cancer.
本研究的目的是了解全球和区域肺癌死亡的动态趋势,并为制定有效的全球肺癌预防和治疗策略提供依据。从全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库收集了1990年至2019年的数据,并使用Excel 2010进行统计分析。标准化基于GBD的世界人口结构,并使用Joinpoint 4.8.0.1软件计算年均百分比变化(AAPC)。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析(BAPC)预测了2020年至2030年全球肺癌死亡率。2019年,全球肺癌死亡人数达到204.26万,比1990年(106.51万)增加了91.75%。2019年标准化的年龄别死亡率为每10万人25.18例。男性为37.38例,女性为14.99例。男性呈下降趋势,而女性呈上升趋势。高社会人口指数(SDI)和中高SDI地区的死亡率呈下降趋势(AAPC分别为-0.3和-0.8),而中、低和低中SDI地区的死亡率有所上升(AAPC分别为0.1、0.37和0.13)。包括大洋洲、南亚、东亚、撒哈拉以南非洲西部、东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲东部在内的几个地区,全球肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势(P<0.01)。预计2020年至2030年全球肺癌标准化死亡率将下降,但预测表明女性死亡率上升,男性死亡率下降。尽管总体呈下降趋势,但女性死亡率上升仍是一个令人担忧的问题。在全球抗击肺癌的斗争中,采取有效措施降低死亡率并提高患者生活质量至关重要。