Yuan Hongxia, Yan Bingju, Chong Yiran, Wang Le, Jiang Yong
Division of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China.
Collaborative Innovation Center for Prevention and Control of Zoonoses of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China.
Front Microbiol. 2025 Jul 24;16:1612124. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2025.1612124. eCollection 2025.
Measles remains a major disease burden on children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and five others) despite vaccine efficacy. This study aims to clarify the temporal trend of measles burden and forecast the trend in 2032.
Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to analyze the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of measles in BRICS-plus countries. In addition, the association between the social development index (SDI) and measles-related indicators of children and adolescents in BRICS-plus countries was analyzed. Joinpoint regression was performed to identify temporal trends, while the age-period-cohort model was used to assess demographic effects. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were utilized to project indicators to 2032.
From 1990 to 2021, the global prevalence of measles dropped by 92% (with an average annual decline of 6.80%), and the average annual decline rates for incidence, mortality, and DALYs were 6.80, 8.02, and 8.02%, respectively. Saudi Arabia had a 100% reduction in prevalence (with an average annual decrease of 15.20%), Ethiopia had the highest DALYs (124542.02), and Russia had the lowest DALYs (1.74). SDI was negatively linked to the measles prevalence ( = -0.703, < 0.001), and an increase in SDI significantly reduced the burden of measles. The prevalence of measles was highest among children under 5 years old and slightly higher in males than in females. Joinpoint analysis indicated that the global burden of measles declined, but its mortality in China sharply increased from 2019 to 2021 (APC = 191.88). The BAPC model predicted that by 2032, the global burden of measles will continue to decline, India will still have the highest prevalence (130.96), Russia may have no new cases, and Brazil and South Africa will have controllable local risks. ARIMA models showed similar trends.
The declining burden of measles in BRICS-plus countries is correlated with SDI improvement, but low-income countries such as Ethiopia still face a high burden of measles. Children under 5 years and regions with low vaccination rates require prioritized interventions. The burden of measles will continue to decrease in the next decade, and increasing vaccination coverage in high-burden countries will help achieve the goal of measles elimination.
尽管麻疹疫苗有效，但在金砖国家加五国（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非及其他五个国家），麻疹仍是儿童和青少年面临的主要疾病负担。本研究旨在阐明麻疹负担的时间趋势并预测2032年的趋势。
利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021的数据，分析金砖国家加五国麻疹的患病率、发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。此外，分析了社会发展指数（SDI）与金砖国家加五国儿童和青少年麻疹相关指标之间的关联。采用Joinpoint回归确定时间趋势，同时使用年龄-时期-队列模型评估人口统计学效应。利用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型和自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型将指标预测至2032年。
1990年至2021年，全球麻疹患病率下降了92%（年均下降6.80%），发病率、死亡率和DALYs的年均下降率分别为6.80%、8.02%和8.02%。沙特阿拉伯的患病率下降了100%（年均下降15.20%），埃塞俄比亚的DALYs最高（124542.02），俄罗斯的DALYs最低（1.74）。SDI与麻疹患病率呈负相关（r = -0.703，P < 0.001），SDI的提高显著降低了麻疹负担。麻疹患病率在5岁以下儿童中最高，男性略高于女性。Joinpoint分析表明，全球麻疹负担下降，但其在中国的死亡率在2019年至2021年急剧上升（APC = 191.88）。BAPC模型预测，到2032年，全球麻疹负担将继续下降，印度的患病率仍将最高（130.96），俄罗斯可能无新增病例，巴西和南非将存在可控的局部风险。ARIMA模型显示出类似趋势。
金砖国家加五国麻疹负担的下降与SDI的改善相关，但埃塞俄比亚等低收入国家仍面临较高的麻疹负担。5岁以下儿童和疫苗接种率低的地区需要优先干预。未来十年麻疹负担将继续下降，在高负担国家提高疫苗接种覆盖率将有助于实现消除麻疹的目标。
