Key Laboratory of Animal Genetics, Breeding and Reproduction in the Plateau Mountainous Region, Ministry of Education, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China; College of Animal Science, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Guangxi Academy of Marine Sciences, Guangxi Academy of Sciences, Nanning, 530007, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jan 15;350:119643. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119643. Epub 2023 Nov 25.
Comprehending endangered species' spatial distribution in response to global climate change (GCC) is of great importance for formulating adaptive management, conservation, and restoration plans. However, it is regrettable that previous studies mainly focused on geoclimatic species, while neglected climate-sensitive subterranean taxa to a large extent, which clearly hampered the discovery of universal principles. In view of this, taking the endemic troglophile riverine fish Onychostoma macrolepis (Bleeker, 1871) as an example, we constructed a MaxEnt (maximum-entropy) model to predict how the spatial distribution of this endangered fish would respond to future climate changes (three Global Climate Models × two Shared Socio-economic Pathways × three future time nodes) based on painstakingly collected species occurrence data and a set of bioclimatic variables, including WorldClim and ENVIREM. Model results showed that variables related to temperature rather than precipitation were more important in determining the geographic distribution of this rare and endemic fish. In addition, the suitable areas and their distribution centroids of O. macrolepis would shrink (average: 20,901.75 km) and move toward the northeast or northwest within the study area (i.e. China). Linking our results with this species' limited dispersion potential and unique habitat requirements (i.e. karst landform is essential), we thus recommended in situ conservation to protect this relict.
理解受威胁物种对全球气候变化（GCC）的空间分布响应对于制定适应性管理、保护和恢复计划非常重要。然而，令人遗憾的是，以前的研究主要集中在地理气候物种上，而在很大程度上忽视了对气候敏感的地下分类群，这显然阻碍了普遍规律的发现。鉴于此，以特有洞穴鱼类大鳍光唇鱼（Onychostoma macrolepis）（Bleeker，1871）为例，我们构建了一个最大熵（MaxEnt）模型，根据精心收集的物种出现数据和一组生物气候变量（包括 WorldClim 和 ENVIREM），预测了这种濒危鱼类的空间分布将如何响应未来气候变化（三个全球气候模型×两个共享社会经济途径×三个未来时间节点）。模型结果表明，与降水相比，与温度相关的变量在决定这种稀有和特有鱼类的地理分布方面更为重要。此外，O. macrolepis 的适宜区域及其分布质心将缩小（平均：20,901.75 km），并在中国境内向东北或西北方向移动。将我们的结果与该物种有限的扩散潜力和独特的栖息地需求（即喀斯特地貌是必不可少的）联系起来，我们因此建议进行就地保护，以保护这种遗迹。
