Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
International Collaborative Research Center for Huangshan Biodiversity and Tibetan Macaque Behavioral Ecology School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
Am J Primatol. 2023 Jun;85(6):e23493. doi: 10.1002/ajp.23493. Epub 2023 Apr 13.
Predicting the spatial distribution of species and suitable areas under global climate change could provide a reference for species conservation and long-term management strategies. Macaca thibetana and Macaca arctoides are two endangered species of Chinese macaques. However, limited information is available on their distribution, and their habitat needs lack proper assessment due to complicated taxonomy and less research attention. In recent years, scholars widely used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the impact of global climate and certain environmental factors on species distribution. Therefore, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of both macaque species under six climate change scenarios using occurrence and high-resolution ecological data. We identified climatic factors, elevation, and land cover that shape their distribution range and determined shifts in their habitat range. The results demonstrated that temperature range, annual precipitation, forest land cover, and temperature seasonality, including the precipitation of the driest month are the main factors affecting their distribution. Currently, M. thibetana is mainly concentrated in central, eastern, southern, and southwestern China, and M. arctoides is mainly concentrated in three provinces (Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong) in southern China. The MaxEnt model predicted that the suitable habitat for both species will increase with increased greenhouse emission scenarios. We also found that with the further increase in greenhouse emissions M. thibetana is expected to migrate to western China, and M. arctoides is expected to migrate to western or eastern China. This reinterpretation of the distribution of M. thibetana and M. arctoides in China, and predicted potential suitable habitat and possible migration direction, may provide new insights into the future conservation and management of these two species.
预测物种的空间分布和在全球气候变化下的适宜区域，可以为物种保护和长期管理策略提供参考。西藏猕猴和滇金丝猴是中国两种濒危的猕猴物种。然而，由于复杂的分类学和较少的研究关注，它们的分布信息有限，其栖息地需求也缺乏适当的评估。近年来，学者们广泛使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型来预测全球气候和某些环境因素对物种分布的影响。因此，我们使用 MaxEnt 模型，利用物种的出现和高分辨率生态数据，预测了在六种气候变化情景下这两个猕猴物种的时空分布。我们确定了影响其分布范围的气候因素、海拔和土地覆盖，并确定了其栖息地范围的变化。结果表明，温度范围、年降水量、林地覆盖和温度季节性，包括最干旱月的降水量是影响其分布的主要因素。目前，西藏猕猴主要集中在中国中部、东部、南部和西南部，而滇金丝猴主要集中在中国南部的云南、广西和广东三省。MaxEnt 模型预测，随着温室气体排放情景的增加，这两个物种的适宜栖息地将会增加。我们还发现，随着温室气体排放的进一步增加，西藏猕猴预计将向中国西部迁移，而滇金丝猴预计将向中国西部或东部迁移。对中国的西藏猕猴和滇金丝猴的分布的这种重新解释，以及预测的潜在适宜栖息地和可能的迁移方向，可能为这两个物种的未来保护和管理提供新的思路。
