Incidence, risk factors, and a prognostic nomogram for distant metastasis in endometrial cancer: A SEER-based study.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the metastatic pattern, identify the risk factors, and establish a nomogram for predicting prognosis of endometrial cancer (EC) with distant metastasis.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of women diagnosed with EC was conducted according to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2010-2017. Multivariate logistic analysis and Cox analysis were performed to identify the risk factors in promoting distant metastasis and predictors associated with overall survival (OS) in this particular subpopulation. A nomogram was then constructed and validated by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2799 cases of distant metastasis in EC patients were identified, with an overall incidence rate of 3.74% from 2010 to 2017. Black race, unmarried status, non-endometrioid histologic types, and grade IV were significant risk factors for distant metastasis in EC patients. Meanwhile, race, histology, grade, metastasis status, surgery, lymphadenectomy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. A nomogram to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was established, and presented favorable accuracy and clinical applicability. Patients were further divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was developed as a highly accurate, individualized tool to better predict the prognosis of EC patients with distant metastasis, which would help clinicians to identify high-risk patients, and adjust and tailor their treatment strategies.