Luan G J, Zhou M G
Institute for Immunization Management, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Mar 10;41(3):368-372. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.03.017.
To explore the association between low air temperature and influenza incidence in winter in 31 provinces in China. Influenza incidence and meteorological data were collected from January, 2004 to December, 2016 in 31 provinces in China. Distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to evaluate the association between low air temperature and influenza incidence in early and late winter, after controlling for the long-term trend, as well as the effect of "day of week" . The influenza incidence increased from 4/100 000 in 2004 to 22/100 000 in 2016 in China, showing an overall increasing trend. The incidences of some provinces were lower than 5/100 000, such as Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, but the incidences of influenza in Gansu, Hebei, Guangdong, Beijing were higher than 30/100 000 in some years. From January to June, the influenza incidence showed a decreasing trend with the increase of air temperature, but the influenza incidence showed a rising trend from July to December with the decrease of air temperature. In early winter, low air temperature had the highest influence on the incidence of influenza in Beijing, the was 2.90 (2.57-3.28), but in late winter, low air temperature had the highest influence on the incidence of influenza in Tibet, the was 3.37 (2.03-5.58). In early winter, low temperature had the highest influence on the incidence of influenza in northeastern China, the was 2.04 (1.48-2.79), but in late winter, low air temperature had the highest influence in southern China, the was 1.77 (1.61-1.94). There were area specific difference in the influence of low air temperature on the incidence of influenza between early winter and late winter. The correlation between low air temperature in winter and influenza incidence exists. The influenza of early and late winter on influenza incidence varies with different areas. We should take appropriate protective measures according to local conditions.
探索中国31个省份冬季低气温与流感发病率之间的关联。收集了中国31个省份2004年1月至2016年12月的流感发病率和气象数据。应用分布滞后非线性模型，在控制长期趋势以及“星期几”的影响后，评估初冬和冬末低气温与流感发病率之间的关联。中国流感发病率从2004年的4/10万增加到2016年的22/10万，呈总体上升趋势。一些省份的发病率低于5/10万，如黑龙江、辽宁和吉林，但甘肃、河北、广东、北京等省份的流感发病率在某些年份高于30/10万。1月至6月，流感发病率随气温升高呈下降趋势，但7月至12月流感发病率随气温下降呈上升趋势。初冬时，低气温对北京流感发病率的影响最大，相对危险度为2.90（2.57 - 3.28），但冬末时，低气温对西藏流感发病率的影响最大，相对危险度为3.37（2.
