School of Economics, Shandong University of Technology (SDUT), Zibo, 255049, Shandong, China.
State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-Arid Arable Land in Northern China, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jan 15;350:119654. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119654. Epub 2023 Nov 27.
China has implemented policies like Leading areas for Agricultural Green Development (LAGD) to mitigate livestock and poultry farming pollution while promoting industry growth. However, it remains uncertain whether LAGDs have successfully balanced emission reduction with stable development. This study examines 165 LAGDs to analyze changes in emissions, assess the decoupling of emission reduction from output value, and identify influencing factors. Findings reveal that emissions from livestock and poultry in LAGDs initially increased and then decreased between 2010 and 2019. Cattle were responsible for over 40% of fecal emissions, and pigs for more than 20%. Additionally, pigs contributed to over 61% of urine emissions. From 2010 to 2014, increases in chemical oxygen demand were mainly due to pigs and cattle. Total nitrogen levels were significantly impacted by cattle, while pigs were affected by total phosphorus. From 2014 to 2019, reductions in emissions were largely attributed to a decrease in pig-related pollutants. The decoupling status shifted from strong to weak and then back to strong between 2014 and 2019. Production efficiency played a crucial role in reducing emissions, while changes in industrial structure moved from supporting to hindering this reduction. Economic development was a primary factor in driving these changes. Standard emissions in Chinese regions showed a rising and then declining trend from 2010 to 2019. The Northeast and Northwest regions of China demonstrated emission trends that were in sync with the growth in rural income. This study offers insights into the successes and challenges of LAGDs in achieving a balance between reduced emissions and development, using quantitative analysis. The findings are instrumental in informing policies for a sustainable livestock and poultry industry. Recommendations include evaluating coordinated approaches to pollution reduction and industrial growth, setting decoupling goals, designing policies based on influential factors, conducting regional assessments of livestock and poultry demand, and implementing region-specific strategies.
中国实施了农业绿色发展引领区（LAGD）等政策，以减轻畜牧业和家禽养殖业的污染，同时促进产业增长。然而，LAGD 是否成功地平衡了减排与稳定发展仍然不确定。本研究通过分析 165 个 LAGD 的排放变化，评估减排与产值脱钩情况，并确定影响因素，以检验这一假设。研究结果表明，2010 年至 2019 年期间，LAGD 中畜牧业的排放量先增加后减少。粪便排放中，牛占比超过 40%，猪占比超过 20%。此外，猪对尿液排放的贡献率超过 61%。2010 年至 2014 年，化学需氧量的增加主要是由于猪和牛。总氮水平受牛的影响显著，而总磷则受猪的影响。2014 年至 2019 年，排放量的减少主要归因于猪相关污染物的减少。脱钩状态在 2014 年至 2019 年间从强变弱，然后又回到强状态。生产效率在减排方面发挥了关键作用，而产业结构的变化则从支持减排转变为阻碍减排。经济发展是推动这些变化的主要因素。中国各地区的标准排放量从 2010 年到 2019 年呈上升后下降的趋势。中国东北和西北地区的排放趋势与农村收入的增长相吻合。本研究通过定量分析，深入了解 LAGD 在实现减排与发展平衡方面的成功与挑战。研究结果为制定可持续畜牧业和家禽业政策提供了参考。建议包括评估污染减排和产业增长的协调方法、设定脱钩目标、根据影响因素制定政策、对畜牧业和家禽需求进行区域评估以及实施针对特定地区的策略。
