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20世纪的飓风给热带森林的高度以及一种主要抗风棕榈的数量留下了持久的影响。

20th-Century hurricanes leave long-lasting legacies on tropical forest height and the abundance of a dominant wind-resistant palm.

作者信息

Uriarte María, Tang Chengliang, Morton Douglas C, Zimmerman Jess K, Zheng Tian

机构信息

Department of Ecology Evolution & Environmental Biology Columbia University New York New York USA.

Department of Statistics Columbia University New York New York USA.

出版信息

Ecol Evol. 2023 Nov 27;13(11):e10776. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10776. eCollection 2023 Nov.

Abstract

Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high-resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape-scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind-resistant species, the palm . Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic.

摘要

气候变暖预计会使飓风强度增加,这将对许多森林生态系统产生深远影响。一个关键挑战是要在大空间尺度上,从影响森林结构和物种分布的众多因素中梳理出风灾的影响。在此,我们采用一种新颖的机器学习框架,利用高分辨率航拍照片以及在波多黎各的埃尔云克国家森林115公里范围内收集的激光雷达数据,来研究地形暴露于两场飓风——1989年的雨果飓风和1998年的乔治飓风——以及几个景观尺度环境因素对当前森林高度和一种占主导地位的抗风物种棕榈树的丰度的影响。模型预测表明,相对于未受影响的区域,遭受这两场风暴影响的森林中棕榈树的平均密度高出32%,而树冠高度则矮20%。我们的结果表明,飓风对森林树冠高度和组成具有持久影响,这表明随着气候变暖,预计飓风强度增加将改变北大西洋的沿海森林。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d95f/10680431/d3620d997b71/ECE3-13-e10776-g002.jpg

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