Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Plant Ecology and Evolution, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Sci Rep. 2020 Mar 9;10(1):4318. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2.
Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes María and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (±2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.
在气候变暖的背景下，气旋风暴强度预计会增加，这将对森林产生深远影响，可能会使这些生态系统从碳汇变为碳源。预测风暴对这些生态系统的影响需要考虑与风暴气象、景观结构和森林属性相关的风险因素。在这里，我们评估了波多黎各森林遭受玛丽亚飓风和艾尔玛飓风破坏的严重程度的相关风险因素。利用实地和遥感数据，估计风暴导致的森林地上总生物量损失为 10.44（±2.33）Tg，约占飓风前全岛森林地上总生物量的 23%。与风暴相关的降雨量是森林破坏的一个更强有力的预测因子，而不是最大风速。土壤蓄水能力也是一个重要的风险因素，这证实了降雨对森林破坏的影响。北大西洋飓风相关降雨量预计增加 20%，这突显了需要考虑此类变化以及强风如何影响陆地生态系统。
