Human Technology Interaction Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Jheronimus Academy of Data Science, Den Bosch, The Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2024 Jun;44(6):1357-1380. doi: 10.1111/risa.14250. Epub 2023 Dec 14.
The central question of our study is which determinants drive smoke alarm ownership and intention to purchase one, and whether we can increase smoke alarm ownership by addressing these determinants in a communication-based intervention. We first made an inventory of possible determinants for smoke alarm prevention by consulting prominent prevention behavior theories protection motivation theory and Health Belief Model and other relevant literature. We expanded this list of determinants based on interviews (n = 15) and used survey data representative for the Netherlands to decide to focus on smoke alarm ownership (rather than installation or maintenance). We then tested the determinants of smoke alarm ownership and buying intention in a survey (n = 622). Based on these results, we ran an A/B test (n = 310) of two messages to stimulate smoke alarm ownership: one emphasized the determinants we found to be strong predictors in the survey (know-how, social norm, annoyance) and one emphasized typical determinants that are often addressed in campaigns but were poor predictors in the survey (vulnerability, severity, benefits). Results showed that the message based on the strong determinants resulted in a significant increase in smoke alarm ownership (9.1%) compared to the control group (0.9%; p = 0.027), while the message using the typical determinants did not lead to significant effects. Taken together, our results give a promising direction for interventions to increase smoke alarm ownership, and above all, show that a comprehensive problem analysis for a specific target behavior is a necessary step to induce behavioral change.
我们研究的核心问题是哪些决定因素驱动了烟雾报警器的拥有和购买意愿，以及我们是否可以通过在基于沟通的干预中解决这些决定因素来增加烟雾报警器的拥有率。我们首先通过查阅保护动机理论和健康信念模型等著名预防行为理论以及其他相关文献，列出了可能影响烟雾报警器预防的决定因素清单。在此基础上，我们根据访谈（n=15）对该清单进行了扩展，并使用具有荷兰代表性的调查数据，决定将重点放在烟雾报警器的拥有率（而不是安装或维护）上。然后，我们在一项调查（n=622）中测试了烟雾报警器拥有率和购买意愿的决定因素。基于这些结果，我们进行了一项 A/B 测试（n=310），以测试两种信息来刺激烟雾报警器的拥有率：一种强调我们在调查中发现的强有力的决定因素（知识技能、社会规范、烦恼），另一种强调通常在宣传活动中提到但在调查中预测能力较差的典型决定因素（脆弱性、严重性、益处）。结果表明，与对照组（0.9%；p=0.027）相比，基于强有力决定因素的信息显著增加了烟雾报警器的拥有率（9.1%），而使用典型决定因素的信息则没有导致显著效果。总的来说，我们的研究结果为提高烟雾报警器拥有率的干预措施提供了一个有希望的方向，而且最重要的是，表明针对特定目标行为进行全面的问题分析是诱导行为改变的必要步骤。
