Mathematical modeling of nicotine and cotinine as biological markers of environmental tobacco smoke exposure.

Computer software developed in our laboratory (CMATRIX) was used to design a physiological pharmacokinetic model of nicotine absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion in man. The model accommodates inhalation of nicotine from various environmental settings and physiological conditions in man. It was also used to predict pharmacokinetic behavior of cotinine arising from nicotine metabolism. Model-predicted variations in body-fluid nicotine levels confirm that nicotine is not an acceptable quantitative marker of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure. Though cotinine provides a more stable pattern, predicted interindividual variation suggests the need for specific strict sampling and monitoring guidelines for cotinine to be a reliable quantitative marker.