基本药物不良反应数量与就诊人次的关系研究：基于向量自回归模型
Study on the Relationship Between the Number of Adverse Drug Reactions of Essential Drugs and Visits: Based on Vector Autoregressive Model.
作者信息
Tang Wan, Chen Hongdou, Zhang Zixin, Wu Gang, Lin Yanquan
机构信息
Pharmacy, Suqian Hospital of Nanjing Drum-Tower Hospital Group, Suqian, People's Republic of China.
Pharmacy, Affiliated Suqian Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Suqian, People's Republic of China.
出版信息
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2023 Dec 14;16:2771-2778. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S420407. eCollection 2023.
OBJECTIVE
To analyse the relationship between the adverse drug reactions (ADRs) of essential drugs and visits, based on the recorded annual increase in ADRs associated with essential medicines in China, to provide a reliable theoretical basis for further analysis and optimization of the safety of essential drugs.
METHODS
The data of adverse reactions of essential drugs in China from 2011 to 2020, time series analysis was conducted, and vector autoregressive (VAR) model was established. The relationship between the number of ADRs and visits was explored empirically through Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition.
RESULTS
There was a long-term cointegration relationship and one-way causality between the number of visits and ADRs caused by essential medicines. In the initial stage, the ADR response to the number of visits increased sharply, but with an increase in the number of lag periods, the impact remained basically stable, even showing a slight decreasing trend.
CONCLUSION
The number of visits impacts ADRs caused by essential medicines, but this impact remains basically stable after reaching a certain level.
目的
基于中国基本药物不良反应（ADR）的年度记录增长情况，分析基本药物ADR与就诊人次之间的关系，为进一步分析和优化基本药物安全性提供可靠的理论依据。
方法
采用2011年至2020年中国基本药物不良反应数据，进行时间序列分析，建立向量自回归（VAR）模型。通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证探索ADR数量与就诊人次之间的关系。
结果
就诊人次与基本药物引起的ADR之间存在长期协整关系和单向因果关系。在初始阶段，ADR对就诊人次的响应急剧增加，但随着滞后期数的增加，影响基本保持稳定，甚至呈轻微下降趋势。
结论
就诊人次影响基本药物引起的ADR，但这种影响在达到一定水平后基本保持稳定。
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