El-Warrak Leonardo, Nunes Mariano, Luna Gabriel, Barbosa Carlos Eduardo, Lyra Alan, Argôlo Matheus, Lima Yuri, Salazar Herbert, de Souza Jano Moreira
Graduate School of Engineering (COPPE), Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Avenida Horácio Macedo 2030, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco H, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil.
Centro de Análises de Sistemas Navais, Rio de Janeiro 20091-000, Brazil.
Healthcare (Basel). 2023 Dec 7;11(24):3118. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11243118.
The COVID-19 pandemic, a transformative event in modern society, has disrupted routine, work, behavior, and human relationships. Organizations, amidst the chaos, have innovatively adapted to the evolving situation. However, many countries were unprepared for the magnitude of the challenge, revealing the fragility of health responses due to inadequate leadership, insufficient resources, and poor information system integration. Structural changes in health systems are imperative, particularly in leadership, governance, human resources, financing, information systems, technology, and health service provision. This research utilizes the Technological Roadmapping method to analyze the health sector, focusing on public health, drawing on articles from SCOPUS and PubMed databases, and creating a roadmap extending to 2050. The research presents three long-term scenarios based on the literature-derived roadmap and explores various alternatives, including integrated care, telemedicine, Big Data utilization, nanotechnology, and Big Tech's AI services. The results underscore the anticipation of post-pandemic public health with high expectations, emphasizing the importance of integrating health history access, encouraging self-care, and leveraging technology for streamlined treatment. Practical implications include insights for decision makers and stakeholders to inform strategic planning and adapt to evolving industry demands, recognizing the significance of preventive services and the humanizing potential of technology.
新冠疫情是现代社会的一个变革性事件，扰乱了日常生活、工作、行为和人际关系。在这场混乱中，各组织创新性地适应了不断变化的形势。然而，许多国家对这一挑战的规模准备不足，暴露出由于领导力不足、资源匮乏和信息系统整合不佳导致的卫生应对措施的脆弱性。卫生系统的结构性变革势在必行，特别是在领导力、治理、人力资源、融资、信息系统、技术和卫生服务提供方面。本研究利用技术路线图方法分析卫生部门，重点关注公共卫生，借鉴科学网（SCOPUS）和医学期刊数据库（PubMed）中的文章，并创建了一个延伸至2050年的路线图。该研究基于从文献得出的路线图提出了三种长期情景，并探索了各种替代方案，包括综合护理、远程医疗、大数据利用、纳米技术和大型科技公司的人工智能服务。结果强调了对大流行后公共卫生的高度期待，强调了整合健康史获取、鼓励自我护理以及利用技术实现简化治疗的重要性。实际意义包括为决策者和利益相关者提供见解，以指导战略规划并适应不断变化的行业需求，认识到预防服务的重要性以及技术的人性化潜力。
