Zhang Bingqi, Imbulana Arachchi Janaki, Managi Shunsuke
Urban Institute and School of Engineering, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 5;14(1):647. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-51308-z.
Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and reducing emissions as a major carbon sink. However, its value in removing carbon dioxide (CO) from the atmosphere is always underestimated in natural capital (NC) accounting and sustainability assessments. This study predicted Japan's forest CO removal by afforestation and forest management and its monetary value until 2042 from national to gridded level, with statistical data and complementary satellite data products, and explored how that CO removal will contribute to sustainable development under the inclusive wealth (IW) framework. The results show that: (1) the annual CO removal by forests has the potential to offset 15.3% of the emission and increase NC by 6.8% in Japan, significantly contributing to carbon neutrality and IW growth; (2) the total CO removal in exiting forests will peak at around 2030 and then decrease, but expanding afforestation could offset that decrease in later years; (3) the spatial distribution patterns of IW and forest CO removal are opposite. This indicates a national carbon trading market could create new wealth for rural communities where vast forests exist, and then effectively balance the inequal urban-rural development in Japan. The explicit spatial information of this study could provide valuable information for differentiating policy priorities of forestry planning and sustainable development in different local communities.
森林作为主要的碳汇，在缓解气候变化和减少排放方面发挥着关键作用。然而，在自然资本核算和可持续性评估中，其从大气中去除二氧化碳（CO）的价值一直被低估。本研究利用统计数据和补充卫星数据产品，预测了到2042年日本通过造林和森林管理实现的森林碳去除量及其货币价值，范围从国家层面到网格层面，并探讨了在包容性财富（IW）框架下，这种碳去除将如何促进可持续发展。结果表明：（1）在日本，森林每年的碳去除量有可能抵消15.3%的排放量，并使自然资本增加6.8%，这对碳中和和包容性财富增长有显著贡献；（2）现有森林的总碳去除量将在2030年左右达到峰值，然后下降，但扩大造林可以抵消后期的下降；（3）包容性财富和森林碳去除的空间分布模式相反。这表明国家碳交易市场可以为拥有大片森林的农村社区创造新财富，进而有效平衡日本城乡发展的不平等。本研究明确的空间信息可为区分不同地方社区林业规划和可持续发展的政策重点提供有价值的信息。
