Andersen Torben J, Young Peter C
Department of International Economics, Government and Business, Copenhagen Business School, Frederiksberg, Denmark.
Opus College of Business, University of St. Thomas, Minneapolis, MN, United States.
Front Res Metr Anal. 2023 Dec 20;8:1239447. doi: 10.3389/frma.2023.1239447. eCollection 2023.
Federal agencies are increasingly expected to adopt enterprise risk management (ERM). However, public sector adoption of ERM has typically focused on the economic efficiency of tax-financed activities based on control-based practices. This reflects an emphasis on quantifiable concerns that invariably directs attention to risk, that (by definition) relates to identifiable and measurable events, thereby downplaying uncertain and unknown aspects of public exposures. This is a potentially serious shortcoming as government entities often act as society's risk managers of last resort. When extreme events happen what were previously considered private matters can quickly turn into public obligations. Hence, there is a need for proactive assessments of the evolving public risk landscape to discern unpredictable-even unknowable-developments.
The article reviews recent empirical studies on public risk management practices, effects of digitalization in public sector institutions, current strategic management research, and insights uncovered from a recent study of risk management practices in federal agencies. On this basis, the article explains how the ability to generate value from ERM can be enhanced when it intertwines with local responsive initiatives and central strategic risk analyses. It can form a dynamic adaptive risk management process where insights from dispersed actors inform updated risk analyses based on local autonomy and open exchange of information. This approach builds on specific structural features embedded in culture-driven aspirations to generate collaborative solutions. Its functional mode is an interactive control system with open discussions across levels and functions in contrast to conventional diagnostic controls that monitor predetermined key performance indicators (KPIs) and key risk indicators (KRIs).
Backed by theoretical rationales and empirical research evidence, it is found that applications of ERM frameworks can produce positive results but is unable to deal with a public risk landscape characterized by uncertain unpredictable conditions with potentially extreme outcome effects. It is shown how interactive exchange of fast local insights and slow integrated strategic risk analyses supported by digitized data processing can form a dynamic adaptive system that enable public sector institutions to deal with emergent high-scale exposures. It is explained how the requirement for conducive organizational structures and supportive values require a new strategic risk leadership approach, which is contrasted to observed practices in federal agencies that are constrained by prevailing public governance requirements.
The need to deal with uncertainty and unknown conditions demands a cognitive shift in current thinking from a primary focus on risk to also appraise complexity and prepare for the unexpected where data-driven methods can uncover emergent exposures through dynamic information processing. This requires strategic risk leaders that recognize the significance of complex public exposures with many unknowns and a willingness to facilitate digitalized information processing rooted in a collaborative organizational climate. If handled properly, adoption of ERM in public risk management can consider emergent dimensions in complex public exposures applying interactive information processing as a dynamic adaptive risk management approach incorporating digitized methods to solicit collective intelligence for strategic risk updating.
联邦机构越来越多地被期望采用企业风险管理(ERM)。然而,公共部门采用ERM通常侧重于基于控制型做法的税收资助活动的经济效率。这反映了对可量化问题的强调,这种强调总是将注意力引向风险,而风险(根据定义)与可识别和可衡量的事件相关,从而淡化了公共风险中不确定和未知的方面。这是一个潜在的严重缺陷,因为政府实体往往是社会最后的风险管理者。当极端事件发生时,以前被视为私人事务的事情可能会迅速变成公共义务。因此,需要对不断演变的公共风险格局进行前瞻性评估,以识别不可预测甚至不可知的发展情况。
本文回顾了近期关于公共风险管理实践、公共部门机构数字化影响、当前战略管理研究以及最近对联邦机构风险管理实践研究中发现的见解的实证研究。在此基础上,本文解释了如何在ERM与地方响应性举措和中央战略风险分析相结合时提高其创造价值的能力。它可以形成一个动态适应性风险管理过程,其中来自分散行为者的见解为基于地方自主权和信息开放交流的更新风险分析提供依据。这种方法建立在文化驱动的愿望所固有的特定结构特征之上,以产生协作性解决方案。其功能模式是一个交互式控制系统,与传统的诊断控制形成对比,传统诊断控制监控预先确定的关键绩效指标(KPI)和关键风险指标(KRI),而该系统在各级和各职能部门之间进行开放讨论。
在理论依据和实证研究证据的支持下,发现ERM框架的应用可以产生积极结果,但无法应对具有不确定、不可预测条件且可能产生极端结果影响的公共风险格局。研究表明,由数字化数据处理支持的快速地方见解与缓慢的综合战略风险分析之间的交互式交流如何能够形成一个动态适应性系统,使公共部门机构能够应对突发的大规模风险暴露。本文解释了有利于ERM的组织结构和支持性价值观的要求如何需要一种新的战略风险领导方法,这与联邦机构中受现行公共治理要求约束的观察到的做法形成对比。
应对不确定性和未知条件的需求要求当前思维发生认知转变,从主要关注风险转向同时评估复杂性并为意外情况做好准备,在这种情况下,数据驱动的方法可以通过动态信息处理发现突发风险暴露。这需要战略风险领导者认识到具有许多未知因素的复杂公共风险暴露的重要性,并愿意在协作的组织氛围中促进数字化信息处理。如果处理得当,在公共风险管理中采用ERM可以在复杂公共风险暴露中考虑突发因素,将交互式信息处理作为一种动态适应性风险管理方法,纳入数字化方法以征集集体智慧来更新战略风险。